Hey yo, what’s up everybody? What’s going on folks? Welcome to the True Training Group live stream. You guys are here with me for Micron earnings. Obviously, a very incredibly important um earnings report that is going to really impact the entire AI trade, which is going to impact the entire tech trade, which is going to impact the entire market. We had a nice strong day in the NASDAQ today, but not so much everywhere else. Um especially right into the close. Right into the close, the market sold off. We actually finished out red on the day after being up considerably earlier in the day on the back of much better than expected PC inflation data, better than expected GDP data, and better than expected ADP job numbers, but none of it mattered. None of it mattered. Even though uh rate hike expectations fell, the market is no longer pricing in a rate hike at the next October meeting from the Fed. It is more of a 50/50 coin flip. Goldman Sachs today has officially shifted their thoughts on their next rate hike being in December. So Goldman Sachs officially putting a note out saying that they do not believe the Fed is going to raise rates in October. And the market um the the betting markets are also now slightly underneath 50% for a rate hike at the October meeting. But that did not stop bond yields. Bond yields continue to move higher. the 10-year Treasury reaching the highest yield since 2002, 5.3% and climbing. And as long as you continue to have bond yields climb at the pace that they are climbing, I think equities are going to have a very tough time moving higher. The only way that I think you get a meaningful and significant move higher in the equity markets is if you get a meaningful and significant move to the downside in bond yields. The equity market has held up very very well throughout this entire process as yields continue to scream to the upside. But eventually something’s got to give. Eventually bond yields have to come down or equities have to come down. Equities are not going to be able to maintain this this, you know, where they currently sit if yields continue much higher from where we currently are. I’m honestly surprised that equities are still sitting where they are being that the 10ear is already at 5.3%. But I digress. Before we get into kind of the bigger picture and the macro, I will share with you a very specific trade plan that I am eyeing up like a lioness in tall grass. I am waiting for my moment to pounce on what I believe is going to be an incredibly profitable trade that is also a very high conviction trade that I have coming up. It’s a trade I am not yet in, but I’m going to tell you exactly what needs to happen for me to get into this trade, exactly what the trade is, where I’m getting in, where my stop loss will be, where my profit targets will be. I’m going to break that all down for you guys here today on this live stream. But first, let’s talk about Micron earnings. Earnings are out and they are fantastic. Nobody really thought otherwise though, right? Micron earnings are out. They’re amazing. I don’t think anybody really thought that the earnings were going to be bad. But the problem is that when everybody expects earnings to be good, when they come out and they actually are good, sometimes the stock doesn’t even necessarily react to the upside. Just look at Nvidia for example. Six of the last eight quarters that Nvidia reported earnings, the stocks actually fallen. Even though they’ve beaten guidance or excuse me, they’ve beaten on earnings, they’ve beaten on revenue, they’ve beaten on earnings per share, and they’ve raised guidance every single time. And still Nvidia stock has gone down six of the last eight times that they’ve reported earnings even though the earnings were amazing. So sometimes just reporting good earnings is not enough. And that seems to be the case right now with Micron as the stock is basically flat. You’re only up a couple of bucks since they reported earnings even though the earnings were as good as they were. Um I’ll give you the numbers here. Fourth quarter revenue comes in at 54.23 billion. Analysts were expecting 51.49 49 billion. The earnings per share comes in at $3342. Analysts were expecting $3183. And they see their next quarter earnings per share between $37.15 to $39.15. And analysts were only expecting $362.
All right. So, those are much better than what was expected. Um, let me see here. uh adjusted operating income of 44.64 billion and adjusted gross margins of 87% as core data center revenue of 18 billion crossed well above the 11.34 billion estimate that is a significant beat. So the estimate for their data their core data center revenue was 11.34 billion. It came in at 18 billion. That is a massive beat on that number. Just absolutely massive beat on that number. Um, but a little bit of a decline here. There’s one metric actually that Micron missed on. And the one metric that Micron missed on is what they believe their gross margins are going to be for the next quarter. Analysts were expecting 86.7% and they are guiding to 86.3%. their their gross margins for this quarter were 87% and they are anticipating 86.3 for the next quarter. So that is the only metric I see that is actually under expectations. But look at this revenue number. Analysts were expecting revenue for the next quarter to be 56.77 billion and the guidance from Micron is between 60 and 63 billion. big beat there on the revenue numbers for the next uh quarter. Also pretty interesting here.
Micron’s uh investor relations website was actually was actually down. That’s how many people are probably trying to log on to their investor relations site to log on for the conference call.
stock is actually moving to the upside now. We’ll see what goes on during the uh the conference call. But these are phenomenal earnings from Micron. Um I mean if you want to nitpick over 7/10 of a point on the margin when margins are 87% to 86.3%. If you want to nitpick on that, it’s hard to do so because of how strong their guidance is with earnings per share and how strong their guidance is um on their revenue. So, it’s it’s really hard to kind of nitpick on that, guys. But yeah, their their website is actually down. Micron service unavailable.
That’s on Micron’s investor relations website. That’s probably how many people are trying to log on to their for their conference call. But unbelievable earnings report. Stock is trading higher now. You are are now at the high of the day and the high of the after hours session. This is a new print high 1084. We made some good money on Micron guys on the long. We we took a long on Micron yesterday. Um was a really nice trade for us. And this is still very much on watch uh for a long if we can break through,00. So, I’ll just talk to you guys about Micron and how we’re going to be looking to trade Micron. And listen, I I trade Micron. Um, but if you guys if Micron is too expensive or it’s outside of the your risk tolerance on the share side or if it’s outside your risk tolerance on the um on the option side, don’t forget that you do have um don’t forget that you do have these leverage ETFs like an MU that you can trade as well. Okay. So, a lot of members when I traded Micron um this week, a lot of members traded MU just to follow along with that trade. Not something that you want to hold on to indefinitely. You don’t want to hold leverage ETFs for an extended period of time. They will decay and will not um it does not it’s not a rolling compounding two times leverage. It resets every single trading day. Um so that’s why you’re looking at Micron. When you look at actually the equity of Micron, it’s much closer to its all-time high than MU is closer to its all-time high. And you would have literally if Micron went back to the all-time high, MUU is probably still going to be, you know, 15 20% off of that high. So, you’re not going to be um anywhere near back that alltime high. So, just something that a lot of people may not be aware of. You don’t want to hold on to these leverage ETFs for long periods of time. They’re really meant to be trading vehicles, not meant to be long-term investments and long-term holds. But as we go back to Micron, there’s a very key resistance level here um at 1100 and we have a very nice support level at 1040. And this is the really the consolidation level that needs to break before you’re going to get a directional base momentum move. Okay. So, if you’re taking a look at this chart that you guys see on my screen right now, the top end of this resistance consolidation, you have a nice little bull. That’s what this is. This is a bull flag. It it is a it’s a nice looking setup here. You know, we were hopeful that earnings would break us out of this bull flag to really trigger the long, but the setup is still here. Okay, here is your bull flag. All right, here’s the flag pole. Right, that’s your consolidation. And your support level here is 1040. Your resistance is 1100. And if you look back to the left, let me just delete some of these lines. I don’t want to jumble the chart up for you. You look back here, you see a nice little pivot point there from the end of July, excuse me, the end of June, early July. And that lines up with the resistance tops from over the last two weeks. And this is your consolidation. I would be very cautious trying to um now with earnings out of the way, I’d be very cautious trying to trade inside of this range. I would really wait for a breakout or a breakdown out of this consolidation. I don’t necessarily like the short on the break down because I think you can break 1040 and still find support at 1020 and then to bounce right back to the upside. I also don’t necessarily think that the stock is is overall bigger picture or short. So I’m really only looking for potential long setups if they trigger. I’m not I’m not going to trade inside of the consolidation, but if we break above 1100, I will look for Micron to be along. Okay, so we’ll see what happens during the conference call. Sorry guys, got my little my tea here. My I woke up this morning with a with a sore throat.
So, I’m drinking some tea. Um, so that’s what we got cooking right there with Micron. So, that’s kind of the that’s the setup there for Micron, guys. Nice support at the 9 EMA, nice support at 1040, but just be wary of that 1100 resistance. Okay. Now, with that being said, I want to take a minute and take you guys now back on over to the overall markets because here’s the trade that I’m going to share with you that is that would end up being a very high conviction trade setup for me if it actually happens. Over the course of the last couple of weeks, I’ve had low conviction on the overall market because we’ve been in a really big digestion kind of consolidation phase. The markets have actually been pretty choppy for the last month and a half. We’ve had a lot of big up days. We’ve had a lot of big down days. But when push comes to shove, you look back and we’re the in the exact same place as we were in the middle of August. And we’ve had ups and downs and ups and downs. And we’re right smack in the middle of that consolidation and that trading range. It’s been pretty choppy to say the least. But levels have been holding very, very well. If you followed my live stream and the analysis that I give you guys, every time I do these live streams, I always share with you my analysis. I share with you my levels. I tell you what I think the market’s going to do, not what it already has done. Um, and if you’ve been following for a little while, we talked about the 750 support level. We talked about the 775 resistance level. We talked about the 763 support level and then today the 769 resistance level. And all of these levels continue to hold and they continue to provide really good trading opportunities for us. There’s a difference between how you want to trade and the style that you want to implement when you are in the middle of a consolidation phase. And there’s a difference in style that you want to implement when you are in the middle of a directional momentum move. Okay? When you have directional momentum, you want to look for ranges and support and resistance levels to break and give you follow-through. Then you want to try to backload your position, meaning you’re going to hold on to bigger pieces of your position deeper into the trade so that you can take profits off at target three, target four, target five, and still have a nice chunk of your position to make more money on high conviction trades when you get really good follow-through. But when the markets are in a consolidation phase, a limited digestion phase, you need to kind of adjust your expectations. You don’t want to be coming into every single trading day thinking that you’re going to get this massive move in the market or a massive move in an individual stock for that matter. Every single type of security goes through periods of consolidation and digestion and periods of breakout, breakdown or direction, momentum and follow through. Right now we are in a consolidation digestion phase. When you’re in that phase, just identify key levels of support and resistance. Play the level to hold. Don’t play the level to break. Play the level to hold. And you would get very good trading opportunities on a daily basis like we’ve been able to capitalize on inside of True Trading Group. But what I think we’re about to come up on is a setup that I think would trigger directional momentum that would give me high conviction. That would be a trade that I’m gonna actually absolutely attack very aggressively. If you look at my chart, I have a couple of lines that have been drawn out for you already. The bottom two lines is a support zone and the top line is your resistance is a key resistance level. This is 775 resistance. It is the last resistance level before you encounter the all-time high. That is the only other major level of structure besides the all-time high. Now, as I take you into a 15-inute chart, there’s other levels of structure in here, like 769, which was the resistance level from today that a lot of our members were able to capitalize on shorts on in the afternoon. There’s some other levels that are that are in here um within the shorter time frames, but the bigger levels, that 775 is your is your major one that you need to focus on. Now, let’s take you down to the support levels. Okay? And honestly, to make this easier, I’ll just even shrink this down a little bit. And here’s the resist. Here’s the support level that I’m focused on. There is so much structure in the low 760s on the spy. We’ve caught great long trades off of this level by every time that we back down into this area. We’ve been able to say again, you play the levels to hold, right? You play the levels to hold until broken. Um, but we are really equities are really starting to get pressured to the downside because of bond yields. And this is kind of where I want to take a second and we’ll we’ll take a pause on kind of talking about Micron. I’ll talk to you guys about the overall market, bigger picture analysis here real quick. There have been several different factors that are causing bond yields to move higher. Those factors are the following. One, um, oil prices and therefore inflation expectations. That’s pushing bond yields higher. Second, rate hike expectations from the Fed. That’s pushing bond bond yields higher. Then um government deficits and and record new issuance that’s pushing bond yields higher. Then you have record surging um corporate bond issuance to fund the AI infrastructure buildout that is providing real competition for capital versus government bond issuance. So you have hundreds of billions of dollars that are flowing into the corporate bond markets to capitalize on a higher coupon rate to fund on debt that funds the AI buildout rather than buying a a a government bond. And it’s not just a US bond. This is a phenomenon that’s happening all over the world. If you look at Germany, you look at France, you look at the UK, all of these developed world these developed economies have bond yields that are at the highest levels they have been in over 20 years. And as I the markets really showed me something really important over the last two days. Over the last two days, several of the factors that have been pushing bond yields higher completely reversed on a on an individual daily basis. Not overall, but just the one one given day. And now in one given day obviously doesn’t make a trend or anything like that but the price action the correlation matters. Yesterday oil was down huge. Oil was down three and a half% yesterday. Bond yields still went up to new highs. So even though oil came down a lot, bond yields still went up. Today PCE inflation comes in at 3.0 was expected 3.3. The 3.0 0 inflation PC number was actually lower than all 51 Bloomberg analysts uh target range. 51 analysts tracked by Bloomberg for the PC data had a range of expectations between 3.1 and 3.5. The lowest of all 51 analysts was 3.1. It came in at 3.0. And even though you have a much better than expected PCE inflation number, bond yields still went up. That lower thanex expected inflation number caused the market’s expectations of a rate hike at the October Fed meeting to go from 72 73% to now under 50%. bond yields still went up. So even though over the last two days you had oil go down a lot yesterday, you had inflation coming better than expected today, you had odds of a rate hike come down and still we did not see pressure ease off in the bond market. So what is driving bond yields higher even though all of these other catalysts are are getting you favorable data points over the last two days? And I go back to Ed Yardenni something Ed Yardenni said just just the other day and I I agree 100% wholeheartedly now given the price action that I’ve seen in the markets the last two days. Ed Yardi said what makes a lot more sense on what is driving bond yields higher as it is a global phenomenon. It is happening all over the world is that we are witnessing the ongoing slow rotation and unwind of the Japanese yen carry trade. And it makes total and complete sense that that is why bond yields continue to move higher. Even though oil was down big yesterday, inflation comes in better than expected today. Odds of a rate hike come down from 70 to underneath 50. And even though that happens, bond yield still went higher. And it makes sense because if you guys don’t, you probably read a lot about the yen carry trade on on social media. You’ve had people talking about the doomsday yen carry trade scenario for three years now. Um and I think you’re just seeing that trade unwind in a pretty methodical manner. But that is what is pressuring bonds or bond well yeah it’s what’s pressuring bonds and pushing bond yields higher. So the way that this works is you would go you would you know investors would borrow would borrow yen as interest rates were as low as they were and the bank of Japan hadn’t changed their policy rates in a very long time and you would essentially go and you would borrow yen. you would use that to then buy other assets like a US government bond and earn the spread between the interest rates, right? So you would earn more interest on one asset than the interest you had to pay on another and you would make that spread, you leverage up your position and you know even though it’s a small spread, small spread on a lot of money is a good chunk of change. And that worked for many many many many many years as there was this this spread and there was this um this known element of what the policy rate was going to be in Japan. Well, the Bank of Japan has steadily been raising interest rates and that is now shrinking the spread and that is now making the yen carry trade less and less profitable to where it no longer starts to make sense. And what ends up happening is in order to close out the loans on the yen side, they need to sell the assets that they purchase with it. So you go ahead and you need to sell your US government bonds. You need to sell your France government bonds, your UK bonds, your German bonds, your Canadian bonds. You need to sell those things to then close out the other side of the trade. And that ongoing selling pressure in bond markets all over the world continues to send bond yields higher like you saw today, like you saw yesterday. Even though you got good data points that should have in theory should have helped bond yields move lower today and yesterday, but they didn’t. They still went up. And it where we are now is we’re at a point where honestly something has to give. The 10-year can’t just go to 5.5, 5.7, 6% and equities just continue to sit here. I am shocked that equities are sitting where they are right now with bond yields being at 5.3% on the 10-year. It’s not necessarily like the actual yield itself that matters. Um it’s not like, oh, if you get above 55, that’s it. All hell breaks loose. It’s really usually the speed in which bond yields move. And this has been one of the most violent moves to the upside that we’ve seen in a while. And I’m surprised how well equities have held up throughout this entire process. But at some point, something’s got to give. And you know, maybe we’re coming up to the point where, listen, either bond yields have to come down considerably or equities have to come down considerably. I don’t think bond yields can continue to move higher and equities can also move higher. I do not believe that that’s possible. I’m surprised that we’re still sitting where we are. If bond yields continue to move higher, okay, and that continues to pressure equities. If the spy gets underneath 762, that will be a high conviction short for me down to 754755.
I’ll be looking for about a $7 move to the downside on the spy and I’ll be risking probably about a$150
maybe to capitalize on six or seven dollars of downside. It’s going to be a high conviction trade. I’m going to be aggressive with it and it would just basically be a break of the support level that you guys can see on my screen. This support zone has held all week. It held last week. There’s a lot of structure here. There’s the gap fill from the big gap up day on the 21st. We’ve held held held held. The 50-day moving average sits here. But if tomorrow or Friday, if this level breaks, okay, if this level breaks, I will be short. My stop loss will be back against this 50-day moving average, which is the dark blue line you see on my screen. I would be short probably somewhere around 761 a 12 to 762. My stop loss will be somewhere around 763 and I’m going to target a move down into this region. Okay. So, just know now listen if you’re a member of True Trading Group obviously I’ll be trading with you live when this happens. Um you’ll be notified the moment I’m entering obviously like we always do inside of True Trading Group. If you’re not a member and you’re just going to you’re just kind of trading on your own, at least now you know my analysis. You’re not going to be able to know when I’m when I’m in and when I’m getting out, but at least now you know kind of where my head is where my head is at. I’m not telling you to just go short the market tomorrow. I’m telling you if this level breaks, I have high conviction for further downside to 754.
Okay, that is what I am telling you.
Now, those of you that are not members, if you’re not members of True Trading Group, you guys could very well trade along with me and the rest of the group. We we do have a 90-day trial that is available for you guys if you want to come and and trade with us. I think it’s a Listen, you guys do whatever it is that you want. I’m not I’m not going to sit here on this live show. I’m not going to sell you on a an annual membership, the True Trading Group. Um, we have annual memberships. We have lifetime memberships. So, I’m not going to talk to you guys about that stuff. True Trading Group has 11,000 members in 115 different countries. There are my It’s myself and seven other professional traders that trade with our members live every day. We share our screens, trade in front of you live, answer questions, provide market commentary and analysis. You get all of our trade alerts when our orders are executing. You know exactly where we’re placing orders before we actually get into these positions and get out of the positions. Um but true is not just a chat room. Okay, this is a fintech platform. TTG has actually received the global fintech uh the global benzinga fintech award for best AI analysis tool. Um we’ve partnered up with the NASDAQ with open AAI data bento unusual whales to get a lot of different data pieces and puzzles that actually make our platform possible and all the tools and resources that we have built. Um it the TTD terminal that the trading system that you have access to as part of true trading group is the greatest tool for retail traders that levels the playing field and really gives you an advantage over other retail traders. You essentially have this very similar tools and data and analytics and resources that professional traders use and you get to use them now within your own retail trading. A Bloomberg terminal is going to cost you over 30 grand a year, right? That’s why most retail traders don’t have them because most retail traders are not going to spend 30 grand on a Bloomberg terminal. Um, but if you have one, you get access to a lot of other cool things that a lot of other traders don’t have. That is why we’ve built out the TT terminal and the tools and resources, the entire suite of AI trading tools and systems that we have is the reason why so many of our members are as successful as they are. So, and I’ll just prove this to you real quick. members of True Trading Group that are on this live. If you are a member and you’re making money and you’re becoming better traders because of TTG, I want you guys to go ahead right now and type the number one inside chat. Again, just type the number one. If you guys are making money, you’re becoming better traders because of TTG, just type the number one. Anyone that’s on here that’s not a member, just pay attention how many people you see, type the number one. This is the reason why I think that you guys should pay attention to some of the stuff I talk about on this live stream. It’s not because I claim to be the world’s greatest trader. I’m not. I’m a damn good one. I’ve been trading for 19 years. I got my start working at a hedge fund in New York City. Now I’m the co-founder and head trader of this platform. We have over 30 employees and 11,000 customers from all over the world. And we are partnered with some of the best, biggest, most influential finance companies in the world. Um, and I’m very proud that that is where we we currently sit. But the reason why I think you should pay attention to some of the stuff we talk about is not has nothing to do with me. It has everything to do with the success that people that are part of this platform and use these tools, the success that they actually have. And you can see from all the people that are typically number one. These are people that were just like you. They were just on a live stream one day and now here they are telling me they’re making money and they’re becoming better traders and if they can do it, so can you. They’re not smarter than you. They don’t have more time than you. 82% of our members have have a full-time job. So if they can do this and so can you. There’s absolutely no reason why you can’t. But that’s really the reason why it’s really the reason why I think that if you’re not a member I’m not gonna talk to you about a membership. I’m going to I’m going to let you guys join our trial. We have a 90-day trial. Come trade with us, use the tools, use some of the systems, make money with it, and then we’ll talk about an annual membership. I believe very strongly in the platform that we’ve created. I see the success our members have. That’s why I have no problem letting you try everything out for 90 days, not seven days. Not 14 days. That’s not enough time. I’m going to give you 90 days to try out all of our stuff. Make money. Then then say, you know what? I don’t want to ever not use these things again. I want to become a member for the year. Fantastic. I’d love to have you. Right. I put my money where my mouth is. And if our stuff is as good as I claim it is, then there should be no reason why you can’t use it. All of our AI tools are usagebased. Okay? Now, you’re going to use them over the course of those 90 days. We are going to lose money on you. I’m telling you that right now. We’re going to lose money on you because that 90-day trial to use our systems is only going to cost you 90 bucks. It’s $1 a day. You’re going to use a lot more than $1 a day of token usage with all of our AI tools. And I’m okay with that because it’s a business decision because I believe that if you use these things that you’re going to see real progress in your trading results and then after your trial, you’re going to become a full-time member. So, I’ll make the investment in the beginning. I will pay for you to use these tools because I believe once you use them, you’ll then want to pay us to use the tools. And that’s the way it should be. That’s exactly what it is here. Go to trueradinggroup.com990.
Okay, that is trueradinggroup.com9090.
Look at this. Mr. Know the truth says, “I went from losing money monthly to now making more than my paycheck each week.” Look at that. And guys, again, I’m going to repeat. It’s not because I just give out the greatest trade alerts ever. Yes, I give out great trade alerts. Yes, I’m a good trader, but it’s not the reason why so many of our members have success. It’s not.
Try it out for yourself. Truegroup.com990. If you have any questions, send us a text message to the phone number that’s listed at the bottom of the screen. We will help you with anything that you need. That is 1888-621-2127. You have any questions, text us. You need help signing up, text us. You need clarity on something, you’re unsure about something, you’re concerned about something, text us. We’ll be more than happy to answer any of your questions or help you in any way that we possibly can. So again, trueraining.com990 or send a text message, get you guys set up, join the trial, use our stuff for 90 days, then tell me I’m okay. So with that said, Micron is just kind of bouncing around. Micron’s really not doing much. That conference call is going to be getting underway
and we’ll see how the stock reacts. But I’m telling you, man, this 762 level, this area breaks, I I think we sell off. You know, I think you’re going to have Let me Let me just delete all this. I’ll start fresh. I just think that if you get a candle that looks like this,
right? I just think you’re going to get you’re gonna get that like I I just I just think it’s going to roll, you know? I do. I I I just think it’s going to roll.
And of course bing you don’t have any major news like if you get like a I don’t know if you get like a US Iran deal or something then obviously I would expect the markets to move higher but you know what I’m what I’m giving you this analysis here is is based on you know the potential situation where bond yields continue to move higher and this support level breaks and in that in that environment in that backdrop I that I get very, you know, I get high conviction bearish to the downside. Can you explain your thought process on how you build those support levels? Sure. GMD, I would I would love uh I would love to go over that. Um so it all comes down it all comes down to just identifying identifying structure and this has been a very big level. Okay, this has been a very big area for the markets. Now, if you look back here, I just drew this line here around this like 760 area, and that’s going to take you to this previous all-time high, right? Then you have this big short squeeze at the end of July, early August, and that also led to a gap. So, now you have a previous all-time high. Then you have a gap entry. So, you had this big gap up to the new all-time high as the markets extended. So, that creates a gap entry point, which is also at the previous all-time high. Then we had pulled in to that level and that level started to act as support until you then broke underneath it when you had the Fed meeting and then all of a sudden you started to develop a couple of different tops. And now you see more structure starts to form as I Oops, I didn’t mean to draw that line. Sorry, hold on. My mouse just kind of got stuck on me. And then you’ll see more structure starts to build.
across these previous tops. So you have here low of the day on this day, high of the day on this day, high of the day on this day, low of the day on this day, low of the day on this day, low of the day on this day, closing price on this day. Right? You see structure starts to build where you have data points that are all within like the same dollar range of each other. And what I mean by data points, okay, I mean a high of the day, a low of the day, an open or a close. So when you’re looking at a candle, there’s four data points per candle. High, low, open, close. They matter. And essentially, when you’re finding when you’re looking for structure, you want to find instances where several high, lows, opens, closes are lining up within the same the same price zone. In this situation, we have a lot of that structure forming while you also have this big gap up on the 21st which creates a open gap. Right? So this is a gap. So from this day to this day, this is a big this is a gap that creates an open gap. Okay? So a gap fill is a point of structure as well, right? A gap fill would be just this this candle’s close. But you also have this dark blue line which is the 50-day moving average. So now you have a moving average that is converging on an area of structure. And that all comes together, okay, to give you your support zone. Support and resistance are not finite prices. They are zones. They are areas of price. They’re not necessarily It’s not like okay support is 762.00 O and if you see 761.95 the level’s broken. That is not the way support and resistance works. The more volatile the the security you’re looking at the wider those zones will tend to be. It is our job as traders to identify and try to you know estimate how wide those levels are. So we know when a level has actually been broken versus a level is currently being tested. I can do an entire lesson on that with you on how to determine the width of a level and then how to determine when a level’s broken or when it’s being um or when it’s being tested. But I would I would go on for another two hours, which I’m not going to do. Um but yeah, that that’s how we identify that’s how we we build out this support level. And you know, we identified this support level last week and then into this week and we were able to catch some nice little long setups off of these levels. You know, every time we kind of backed up into here, we actually got some pretty good um buy opportunities for quick little day trades or quick little scalps depending on your trading style. But if bond yields continue to move higher, guys, I think this level is going to break. Okay? And I think that this this level is holding on. Uh it’s holding a lot of things up. And if if you get underneath it, I just think that I think things accelerate to the downside if you get underneath it, right? I just think it accelerates to the downside if you get underneath it. My stop loss will be back against that 50-day moving average. Again, that’s that dark blue line you see on my screen. Okay? But again, this is only a trade that we’re going to take if this level breaks. If tomorrow we gap up to 764 and a half, I’m not I’m not coming out of the gate just going ahead and just going short, right? It’s only if that level breaks.
Okay. Yeah, my pleasure. GMD. My pleasure. Says, “Very helpful. I understand much more now.” Thank you, sir. My absolute pleasure. I love um I love that you even asked that question because it shows that you’re actually trying to learn. You know, you’re not you don’t just want someone to tell you what it is, right? Like, you know, oh, hey, just tell me what support is. Tell me where to buy. You know, I don’t I don’t necessarily like that. I listen, if you want to, you want to learn, you want to understand. I love that question. I love that. I love that you were, you know, you wanted to kind of know the why. So, that’s awesome. Uh, even with Micron going up. So Sherry, I I assume your your question was regarding, you know, me me getting bearish. Um, would I be bearish even if Micron goes up? Micron’s not really going up right now. Micron is just flat. You know, we we pushed a couple of bucks there after the earnings report, but nothing significant, nothing major. Nothing that would actually make the market move higher. And that’s really what I’m looking for, you know? I’m I’m looking for
a move in Micron that would have carried the entire AI trade with it in order to pull the whole market with it and you haven’t seen that. Maybe that changes during the conference call, but it certainly doesn’t feel like it. How long under a level or over a level do you consider to be confirmation of something, FIFA? That’s a great question. It has nothing to do with time. It has everything to do with price. Allow me to explain.
You might hear some traders say, “Oh, when it gets above a level, wait for the candle to close, and if it closes above it, the level’s broken.” That’s not true. Um, it it has for me it’s it has nothing to do with time and has everything to do with price. So, here’s the deal. Here’s how I determine when a level’s broken. This is a little bit more of an advanced topic, but it’s a very important technical analysis um issue. So, I’m glad you asked and I’ll I’ll run through this with you guys. Um, right now, let’s say if you determine that a level is $2 wide, let’s say you’re looking at Tesla and you say Tesla has I’m making this up. I’m not I don’t even know. I’m not even looking at Tesla. Um, this is completely hypothetical. So, don’t take this as analysis. This is just a hypothetical example. Let’s say if you said, “Oh, I see support on Tesla from 350 to 348 and you determine Tesla. Tesla’s a more volatile stock. It’s going to have a wider level than let’s say Bank of America. Bank of America’s level might be 30 cents wide.” Okay. So, you might say Tesla has support 350 to 348. So, what does that mean? That means that you believe that price could stretch from 350 all the way to 348 and that level would still hold. So, how do we know when the level is broken? The way that I like to confirm that a level is broken is when the listen to me carefully and then I’m going to say this so you catch it and then I’m going to explain further. I want a level to break by at least the width of the level. So if the level is $2 wide and it’s a support level and you want to know when is this level broken, you say from 350 to 348. If it’s $2 wide, then I want to see the level break by $2. So that means you break 348, you go to 346. Once you get to 346, you’ve broken the level by the width of the level. The level is now considered broken. Now, as the stock goes from 346 back to 348, now you go short with a stop loss at 350 and you look for then the stock to roll over to 343, 342, 340, etc. Now, let’s play the other way to the upside. Let’s say you’re looking at a stock $50 is resistance. You determine that this level is 75 cents wide. Maybe from 50 to 5075 you feel is resistance. But you feel if you break 5075, you’re through the level. So for me, let’s say the stock goes to 51. I still do not consider the level to be confirmed broken because maybe the level is a little bit wider than I thought it was and it goes to $50.95 and then it drops down to 49 and you and then at that point you just have a tail into resistance, an inverted hammer or a shooting star, whatever you want to call it. And now all of a sudden you look and you say, “Oh wow, the level failed, right? The stock failed at the level the the resistance level held. look at this big rejection, but in the heat of the moment in real time when the stock pushes to 5090, it looks like it’s broken. An hour later, it’s at 49 and you’re like, duh, level’s not broken. So, how do you know in the moment that the level’s broken or it’s just being tested? And for me, I like to see it break the level by the width of the level. So, $50 to 5075 is a 75 cent wide level. Then when you break 5075, go 75 cents. go to 5150. Now level broken. Now as the stock pulls back from 5150, now you start to go long 5075 5050. Now you’re buying the stock there with a stop loss back against $50. FIFA, does that answer your question? Does that make sense? There’s more there. Listen, I I can get a lot more detailed with you. I can get a lot more granular. There’s volume that we want to look at. There’s particular price action as far as candlesticks go. But the gist of things, that’s a really good rule of thumb to help you understand and determine when a level’s broken versus when a level’s being tested. Does that help answer your question? Anybody else unsure about anything that I just said? If you are, now is the time to speak before I do dip out and go eat some soup and drink my tea and get ready for my Yankees game. Beautiful.
Anony’s one wheels says, “Well explained. Thank you. I learned something about it.” Fantastic. FIFA. Yes. Thanks a lot. My pleasure. Smooth brain. It’s a great explanation. Hope you’re well, brother. So guys, again, listen, you guys you guys want more of this. You know, we give out a lot. I do a lot of educational trainings throughout the course of every trading day as well. And after hours, we do a bunch of stuff, too, with members. Like I said, you guys are more than welcome to come trade with us. Um, you know, you guys can come trade with us um for 90 days, use the systems, you know, check out the the 11,000 members we have. Check out the seven other professional traders that are mods inside of True Trading Group aside from myself. Check out all the AI tools that are available to you and and let’s make some damn money together. Try the system. Then we’ll talk about you becoming a full-time member. So again, go to trueraininggroup.com990
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Um, eyes on that level, guys, 762. That level breaks, just know I’m going short. All right, good luck uh tomorrow. Those of you that are not members, uh those of you that are members, I’ll see you guys as always. And um that’s really it. So, thanks for thanks for tuning in. Subscribe to the channel, guys. Show some love. Smash that like button. Turn on your notifications and I will see you guys all mñana. Take care folks. Have a great night.