What’s up everybody? How are we? Hey yo, how we doing? What’s up? What’s up? What’s up? Welcome to the True Trading Group live stream. How are everyone today? We’ve got a Micron earnings. So, we are here for Micron’s earnings and those numbers just came across uh those numbers just came across the wire. So, let me just go through all these with you guys here. Now it is an unbelievable earnings report and there was never any question really that the earnings were going to we all knew that the earnings were going to be fantastic. You know we know what the you know the the backlog with memory and what’s been going on with memory prices. You even had Tim Cook of Apple come out and say that they have to raise the price of the iPhone because the cost of memory has just shot up so much. And that’s how you know that this is not like a shortterm trend. This is something that even Tim Cook of Apple believes is going to be a long-term issue here. Otherwise, Apple would not be raising the price of their phones um because of it. So, you knew that the earnings were going to be good. You I don’t think if you asked anybody, hey, is is Micron going to beat or they going to miss on earnings? I don’t think there’s a single soul that would have told you that they felt that Micron was going to beat their earnings expectations. But the question was, how is the stock going to react to it? Ju just because a company beats on earnings does not necessarily mean that the stock’s going to go higher. We saw Nvidia. Nvidia had amazing earnings. Amazing stock still down what almost 10% or so from the earnings report. So just because the stock has really earnings does not necessarily mean that’s going to move higher. In this case, we are moving higher. Micron is trading up 7% on the day. We’re up around a little 8% or so from the close. Um and we are we’re pumping. We’re pumping back now. We just actually broke back above yesterday’s high. And now you’re up into the gap, which was the huge gap down from yesterday. And we’ll talk about everything. We talk about how we’re going to trade Micron now going forward. Um, Micron is obviously going to be something that is going to pull and you’ll have sympathy plays around the entire rest of the AI trade. All the rest of your semiconductors, AMD, um, ARM, Nvidia, Broadcom, Intel, SanDisk, Western Digital, all of those stocks are going to have sympathy plays from this. It’s also something that’s going to carry the entire stock market with it. We’ve got SOXL, which is the three times leverage ETF or SOXX, the selective ETF. We trade that pretty frequently here inside True Trading Group. And then we also have the NASDAQ and the S&P are moving higher on the back of this earnings release as well. Markets had a little bit of a dip the last couple of days with a big gap down yesterday. We had another what looked like we were going to have this really weak kind of finish out to the day. Markets kind of hung in there. We finished flat on the day and then now we’re pushing back green after Micron’s earnings. Here are the numbers. Okay, $41.5 billion in revenue. The expectation was 35 a.5. The earnings per share comes in at $2511 a share. Earnings expectations were 20.6.
Their guidance fourth quarter revenue 50 billion expectation 43.24 billion their fourth quarter earnings per share $31 expectations on that guide was for $25.31.
This is a monster beat on Micron. Now the thing about Micron that is the most interesting is that Micron is experiencing something very very very similar that Nvidia experienced a couple of years ago. When Nvidia started its meteoric rally of thousands of percent over the last several years, when that fir when that stock first started getting going back in 2023, their earnings were were exploding so much that as the stock was moving higher, it was actually getting cheaper from a valuation standpoint. When you look at their PE, PE price divided by earnings. As the earnings number goes higher, that PE ratio comes down. Micron is experiencing something very similar to that. Micron was trading at around the nine or 10 PE, which is peanuts compared to what you see some of the PE ratios on some of these other names that are out there. When you look at some of the other PE ratios of when people like to make comparisons to the dot era um and you look at some of the PE ratios when like Cisco was trading at like 150 160 times um back in the year in back in 1999 into 2000 and you look at Nvidia trading in the 20s. You look at Micron trading at around 9 or 10. And with this earnings support it’s even going to drop that pro I think it’s going to drop that PE ratio even lower. We’ll have to actually see what it turns out to be at now that we have the new earnings that are out. Um, so it’s actually not an expensive stock from a share price standpoint. It’s expensive, but not from a valuation standpoint. And that’s even with the stock going up over a,000% in the last year. So truly a remarkable run here in this stock. I own Micron long-term portfolio. I have trimmed the position during this big rally. Um, I still own a nice chunk obviously though of this position and it’s been just an unbelievable it’s been an unbelievable run and this earnings is just another fantastic number. Now, when it comes to the chart though, I think we have to be a little cautious of what I think is a resistance zone above 1150. So, if you’re taking a look here at my chart, this this candle right up here kind of got left out there on an island by itself with a huge gap down that you had yesterday. And I am a little, you know, I take a look at this chart and I think to myself that this zone right here may end up being resistance. Okay. So, if we take a look at this area right here, it’s from like 1150 to 1175. All right. It’s called this little this zone right inside here. I think that that is going to end up being an area of resistance. Um, you know, in order for this the memory trade and the semicer trade to have another leg higher, I really think Micron needs to fill this gap and and push beyond it. Okay, I really think they need to fill this gap and push beyond it. So, I think we got to be cautious of that. And I’ll go now to a shorter time frame chart. We can go into the three-minut chart. And I I don’t think it’s a coincidence that right now this is where the stock is pausing. So look, this is these are the two lines I just drew for you on the daily. Right? So that was the daily chart. I’ll go back to the daily. Right? There’s your resistance zone that I think is is is going to be resistance. We go to a three-minute chart and then these that’s that same zone. There’s that there’s those lines. Right? So, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that we just popped into this level and now the stock, you can see we had this, you know, massive push off the off the earnings number and then now a little bit of a pause right here at that resistance spot. Okay, so I’m not necessarily telling you that I’m bearish. I’m not I’m not bearish. I just think that before I would think to myself like, hey, let’s go long micron. I’m not going to probably look long Micron until we clear out this resistance zone that we see here for like a day trade or a swing trade. I’m talking about obviously I’m long it own it in the long-term portfolio. I don’t necessarily really have any intention of selling the position. I mean, I don’t mind, you know, trimming it a bit, but you listen, you know, just full disclosure, I’ve trimmed this position now twice. I bought Micron in 2022 in the long-term portfolio. Um, so my average cost is is ridiculous, but I have trimmed the position. I trimmed it in May when we got here to 700 and then I also trimmed it um well I trimmed it Wait, was it May? Was it Yeah, they were both in May. So I I think believe it was I think believe it was twice because I trimmed it twice and I believe they were both in May. I believe these were the two trims um that I’ve done so far. Now, obviously, I was a little early on those trends because now the stock is significantly higher. So, in hindsight, do I wish that I took those trends? Probably not. But I still have a pretty large position on it. Um, and I don’t know. I feel like I’ve already trimmed. I feel like I don’t necessarily have any, you know, an intent on on selling out of more, but um it’s just been an unbelievable trade. It really has. It’s been an unbelievable trade. I didn’t It’s not that I foraw this coming. Also, I’m not trying to be like, “Yeah, I bought in 2022. I bought in 2022. I bought everything. I bought a bunch of I bought the semiconductors I bought in 2022 were Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Taiwan Semi, and Micron. Those are the ones I also bought everything you can imagine in 2022. I bought the Mac 7s. I bought all your cyber security names. I bought I bought software name. I bought as much tech as you can possibly imagine back in the bare market of 2022. So, it’s not like I saw this big memory craze coming because AI wasn’t really even a thing yet in 2022. I was just going long on semiconductors and this just turned out to be an unbelievable an unbelievable move just like with Nvidia and just like AMD and some of the others. Um I don’t own SanDisk. I don’t own Intel. I don’t own ARM. Uh those are two others. There are a few others that have made had made had huge moves and you’re not going to own all of them, right? You’re not going to own all of them. Um but this thing is a has been an absolute monster. Amazing earnings report, guys. I just I still with that being said, I still do think that we have this resistance level that we have to be mindful of. Okay, and it’s going to be 1150. Okay, it’s going to be 1150 into 1175. So 1175 is the double bottom from the 22nd. So this was the day we made the all-time high and you can here would be your next level of resistance from there. So there’s three resistance levels that you can look at here from my on micron 1150 1175 and then up here around 1200 1210 which is the actual all-time high. Those are your three resistance levels. Okay. And I would even argue that I would argue that this is not two levels but rather it’s one. That’s just one area of resistance and then here is your second area of resistance. That’s [clears throat] how I see it. Okay. Do I think that they will split um eventually? Um, you know, I’m surprised they actually didn’t announce a split on this earnings report being that the stock is trading over $1,000 a share. Um, but I do think eventually they will do a stock split. as you know, SanDisk, Micron, I I would imagine that they would follow in the footsteps of Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, and usually when these stocks cross over, usually when these stocks cross over that thousand mark, if they stay there for an extended period of time, you know, usually you’ll see the stock splits. They probably didn’t do it just now because it the stock just got above $1,000 just this month. So, you know, if they stay stay above $1,000 for another quarter or two, maybe they’ll do the stock split. Um, as far as buy points for Micron, maybe there’s a bunch of people that are on this live stream that maybe they don’t own Micron and they’re wondering where can I buy it. Let’s talk about that because the area that I would look to to buy Micron in the long-term portfolio if you don’t own it already. I love the bo the area down here in the low 800s. I don’t you know it’s might be wishful thinking for you to get down there anytime in the very near future. But I think this is a wonderful buy point. It’s a great area of structure. It’s a $50 wide zone. Previous pivot top from May. Then you had that big gap that gap up and extension to the new all-time high. you pull back down into it and then you double bottom that support at 850 and then you also have the 50-day moving average that’s coming into play curling up here. So any pullback like if you got like for example if there was a down move today on earnings if there was a down move and the stock like flushed out I would I told people in like members of true trading what if they were asking me today I would say that if you don’t own Micron and you want to the place to do it is down there in the 800s. Now, obviously, you’re not getting that. Stocks up 9% right now on the day. Um, but that’s a really good spot to buy some if you don’t own Micron. You can kind of mark that price off on your on your chart. You can set an alert for it, whatever it is. And when the stock gets eventually it will, you know, I don’t not sure when, but eventually eventually you’ll see Micron um pull itself back down into the 800s. And that could be a spot where you guys can look to maybe enter or initiate a position if you don’t own any. Okay. So, you know, it’s it’s amazing the rotation that we’ve really seen in the semiconductor sector. The semiconductor sector has gone through one of the most epic stock market rallies in history. Actually, I don’t know if you guys realize this or not, but you what you’ve what you’ve been witnessing in the semiconductor space is completely historic. the the semi um semi- sector makes up the largest percentage of the S&P market cap overall from one isolated sector ever. It’s the highest waiting that we’ve seen. So, it truly is carrying the entire stock market on its back. You know, it was funny yesterday. Yesterday we had that big big gap down and the big sell-off. The Nasdaq was down over 3%. Um, and even when the NASDAQ was down two and a half two and a half% 2% on the day when we started to bounce back a little bit, the Dow Jones was was actually green. So, the Dow Jones was actually positive during the period of the trading day even though we had the big sell-off. And it’s because the rest of the market wasn’t selling off. Yesterday was selling off specifically semiconductors, memory stocks, the chip names, and the AI trade. So, it really is showing you just how big of an impact these stocks have on the S&P because the S&P is a market cap weighted index. The bigger the market cap, the more effect you have on the index. The Dow Jones is very different. Dow Jones is not weighted on market cap. It’s weighted on share price. Now, you guys may have heard the news yesterday that Alphabet is being added to the Dow Jones. I believe it actually gets added to it on Monday, but the announcement came yesterday that they’re being added to it. So, now Alphabet going in at $345 a share, it’s not even though Alphabet has the largest market cap of any company. Well, not any company, you have Apple in there, too. But even though Alphabet has the largest um not the largest but a larger market cap than Apple because I’m sorry even though Apple has a larger market cap than Alphabet Alphabet has a larger impact on the Dow than Apple because of the share price because Alphabet share price is 345 Apple share price is 294 and you really want to laugh the biggest impact you have Goldman Sachs trading over $1,000 a share. You have Caterpillar at $1,000 a share. You have United Health at $45 a share. So, you have other companies that have market caps nowhere near the size of Alphabet and Apple, but don’t have as big of an impact because the Dow is weighted off of share price, not weighted off of market cap. Now, in the S&P, it’s the market cap. So, Nvidia being the largest market cap, that has the biggest influence. Then you have Apple and you have Alphabet, Microsoft and that’s and then that starts to round off kind of the top five of market caps and and their ratings on the S&P. So a little fun fact there. I’m not sure if anybody so some of you may may or may not have known that. Let’s get back to the overall market. Let’s talk about the impact that we are seeing on the overall market from Micron’s earnings. We dipped down yesterday into this 50-day moving average and we really tested that level pretty deeply today and now we’ve reclaimed it and now you’re back really trading, you know, right in the center of the range really. And you have a couple of key levels that I want you guys to focus on. There are three key levels for us to be trading off of in the next couple of days. Let’s talk about your resistance levels first. There are two resistance levels that you guys need to focus on. Your first resistance level is 740. Your second resistance level is 744. Now, inside of True Trading Group, we have caught really, really, really good short setups the last two days off of 740 resistance. It didn’t just happen today. It also happened yesterday. So, this is the resistance zone, right? there’s a resistance and then bang, there’s a resistance and then bang. And a lot of our members, whether they’re trading options on the spy or they’re trading futures, we trade everything inside your trading group. We trade stocks, options, futures, crypto, we day trade, we swing trade, we scalp, we cover long-term investing. There’s literally something for everybody inside True Trading Group. It’s not just me. There’s seven other professional traders that are with you live every single day, sharing their screen, trading with you live, answering questions, alerting their orders and their executions and their ideas that are with you for the entire trading session. We’re not just gone after an hour and you left to fend for yourself. Uh, and that’s a daily occurrence inside of True Trading Group. But TTG is not just about courses and trade alerts and a chat room. Yes, we have those things. Yes, they’re amazing. But true trading group is really a fintech platform that has a trading um you know a a suite of trading tools for retail traders that generally gives them an edge and an advantage over others that don’t have access to them. Similar to the way that a Bloomberg terminal gives professional traders and hedge funds institutions a distinct advantage over other others that don’t have access to that data, that platform, that network, those tools. the TTG terminal that we have here with all of our trading tools and all of the data and the analytics that we have really give our members a distinct advantage and edge over other retail traders that don’t have access to these tools. And I’m not just saying that as like a trust me. It’s because, you know, it’s our members are very successful at True Trading Group. Our members, and by successful, I literally mean that they make money. And you don’t have to believe me just because I’m saying that I’m some guy on a YouTube channel. You want to believe members themselves. So, I’ll actually ask them. I know we have a bunch of members that are on this live right now. Members of True Trading Group, do me a favor. Type the number one in chat right now. If you are making money and you’re becoming better traders because of True Trading Group. Again, it type the number one. If you’re making money, you’re becoming better traders because of TTG, type the number one in chat right now. And anyone here that’s not a member, pay attention to how many people typed the number one because these are people that were once in your exact same shoes watching a live stream. They joined True Training Group. They got access to our trading assistant, our AI, Mari. They got access to our our trade plan generator, the holy grail. They got access to our active trader trading assistant. They’ve got access to our AI charting software. They got access to the level three data feed that we get directly from the NASDAQ. They’ve got access to all of these different tools and resources. And they have made a positive impact and have helped our members to become successful and to make money because these things give them an edge and allows them to make better decisions. Just as as an example, we have an institutional flow monitor at True Trading Group that allows us to distinguish the difference between institutional orders and retail orders. So, when we sit here and say to you, “Hey, I think there’s resistance at 740 on the spy,” all I need to do is run my institutional flow monitor and just see if there’s large clusters of institutional sell orders that are at that level that are piling together there and clustering together there. All I need to do is see if they’re there. And if there if I do see large institutional sell orders clustered at 740, then I like, okay, then there’s my resistance level. Let’s go short. And that’s exactly the premise behind the short setup that we caught in the last two days. I mean, how many members inside your How many members that are on this live stream right now actually made money off that short from 740, 739 over the course of the last two days? Many of you in here been all over that thing for the last two days. And a lot of that has to do with not just our ability to identify resistance on a chart, but it’s also thanks to the tools and resources that we have to confirm what we see on a chart. That’s the difference. It’s one thing for us to look at a chart and say we think that’s resistance. It’s it’s something else entirely to actually see the resistance confirmed in the in the form of institutional orders. Didn’t have time to trade all day. caught a nice thousand bucks on that closing push with just a few MES contracts. TTD teaches you how to trade, not just follow. Yeah. Amen. Rhino, what’s up, brother? Happy follow late Father’s Day to you, my man. So, yeah, that’s that’s what I’m talking like. If you guys look at a chart and you think that you have a support level, let’s How many people in here, you might look at a stock and say, “I think there’s support at 100.” The stock drops to 100. And you hesitate. You don’t buy it. Instead, you wait for it to bounce to 102 and you’re like, “Oh, look, there’s support.” And then you buy it at 102. Or you buy the option contract at $1.75 when you could have bought it at a$125. And that could be the difference between you making 100% on an option trade or 30% on an option trade because your entry is so much later. You’re buying so much further into the move. And that’s because you were unsure about whether or not that support level was going to hold. you didn’t you weren’t confident in the level. You all know exactly what I’m talking about. You’ve all been there. You’ve all done it. Now, imagine having an institutional flow monitor to actually sit there and say, “Hey, yeah, actually there’s overwhelming large institutional buy orders that are sitting at this $100 level. You have, you know, 24 iceberg orders.” Now, an iceberg order is an order that is showing a particular size order, but the actual true order is much larger. Similar to an iceberg, when you see an iceberg, you only see the very top of it. The actual iceberg itself is much, much larger, but it’s underwater. You can’t see it. An iceberg order is an institution that, let’s say, is showing 100 shares to buy, but really it’s an order for 10,000 shares. That’s an iceberg order. Those are very telling. So what I do personally is I’ll use this the terminal and the tools that we have to identify when I see support and resistance I want to see are there institutional orders that are clustering at that level and are there iceberg orders at that level also and if there are then I go ahead and I take the trade because that gives me an extra level of conviction and confidence and an extra and and much higher probability of that level holding for me to execute my trades off of. These are the reasons why our members are successful. I I wish I would sit here and tell you that our members are successful because I’m the world’s greatest trader. I’m a damn good trader. I’ve been doing this 19 years. I started my career working at a hedge fund in New York City. I received the trader of the year award from working at the fund. I’m a damn good trader, but I’m not the world’s greatest. I don’t I’m not I don’t have a 100% win rate. I don’t claim to be the world’s best. I’m a damn good one. I’m right a hell of a lot more than I’m wrong, but I’m still wrong sometimes, right? I’m human. I’m not the reason why our members are successful. The platform, the tools, the resources, the data, the analytics, that is the reason why so many of our members are successful. And what I’m actually doing right now, and this is not, listen, I feel very confident in what we have here at True Trading Group, and its ability to help you guys make money. We actually have going on right now a 90-day trial where anyone that’s not a member, you guys can come on to the platform. You can use these tools yourself for 90 days. You guys can come on to the platform 90 days, no long-term commitment because True Training Group is an annual membership, okay? But I’m not talking to you about an annual membership right now. Forget about that. If if our platform and our tools are as good as I say they are, then you should be able to come onto our platform and within a few months make money. So that’s exactly what we’re going to do. Forget about the the larger upfront payment. Forget about the year membership, the year commitment. Join us for 90 days for 90 bucks. Use our platform. Use our tools. Make money. Then we’ll talk about you becoming annual member. Sound fair? I think that sounds fair. I have no problem doing that because that’s how confident I am in the platform we’ve created. I see the results that our members have. This is not a trust me bro. I want you to actually use these things for yourself and see the impact that it has on your trading. Go to trtrading.com990.
Again, that is trueradinggroup.com990.
Join us for 90 days for 90 bucks. It’s not a subscription. It’s not an automatic renewal. Okay? After your 90 days are over, you’re not charged another $90 and you’re going to continue. It’s a one-time 90 bucks for 90 days. After your 90 days are up, you tell me what you want to do. Did you hate True Training Group and you don’t want to join and you’re like, “Screw this place.” Cool. It cost you 90 bucks for 90 days. Cost you 30 bucks a month. No harm, no foul. But after those 90 days, you’re going to sit there, I feel confident, you’re going to sit there and say, “This place is freaking amazing. I want to stay here.” And you’re going to become an annual member. Why do I think that? Because members of True Trading have been here for four, five, six, seven years. Why would a member be here for six or seven years if they’re just losing money every year? Watch this. Members of TTG that are on this live stream, type in chat right now how many years you’ve been a member. How many years have you been a member at True Trading Group? Just go ahead and type the number in chat. And for those that are not members, just read some of the comments. See how long some of these people have been here. And then ask yourself, if you joined, hypothetically, let’s say you joined an annual membership, what would it take for you to be a member? Julie, five years. I got 99 problems, six years. Kevin, five years. Carmen, five years. Virtual Peter, five years. Suzie, six years. My boy Jimmy Benson, what’s up, brother? Six years. Five years for Michaela. Rhino, five or six years. Jeff, six and a half. Reggie, my man, I hope you’re doing well, brother. Five and a half years for Reggie. Roar, six years. SJ, five years. Kelly, six years. Nicole, five years. Micah, three years. Ivonne, five years. Brandon, four years. What would it take for you to stay here for four years, five years, six years? You have to be successful, right? You have to be successful. I would imagine you’d have to be seeing progress. You’d have to be getting value from this platform.
This is why I am confident if you try out the platform for 90 days, you’re going to freaking love it. You’re going to love it. Truegroup.com990.
If you have any questions or you need help with anything, you’re unsure about something, you need clarity on something, you’re concerned about something, whatever, send a text message. Okay? Send a text message. The phone number’s at the bottom of your screen. 1888621-2127. I’m being dead serious. Any questions at all, any concerns, you need help signing up, text that phone number. We will help with anything that you need. Okay, that’s it. Rhino, that’s the exactly Rhyno says if this didn’t work, they wouldn’t be able to offer 90 bucks for 90 days. Most people see such results, they end up staying for life. It’s great business model. Listening to the play-by-play commentary was worth the lifetime membership alone for rats. Yeah, a lot of these people are lifetime members, by the way. [laughter] Some of these people said, “Forget the annual membership. I want to join for life. And the lifetime membership is substantially more money than obviously the annual membership, but a lot of people knew, hey, I know I’m going to stay here for a very long time. I’d rather pay upfront for life and that way save myself a ton of money for years to come. A lot of our members have done that. We have 11,000 members in True Training Group. Over 5,000 of them are lifetime members.
That says something. But again, forget about lifetime. Forget about an annual membership. Join us for 90 days. Use the platform for yourself. Trade with me live. Trade with the other professional traders that are mods live. Use the tools. See it for yourself. 90 days, 90 bucks. Truegroup.com990.
Let’s do a quick check now back in here, guys, on uh do a quick check back in here on Micron.
Lookie lookie. We’re pushing right up into that resistance zone. Man, this is going to be interesting. This alltime high sits right up here above 1210 and we just pushed up to 1195. It’s going to be interesting. All right, let’s let’s take a breather. We’ll talk we’ll we’ll put a pin in Micron. We’ll do a little timeout on Micron. Let’s talk about some other positions um that we are in. I want to notify you guys of a long-term portfolio move that I made today. I always let you guys know um when I uh when I buy some stuff my long-term portfolio. I just added some Netflix today. Um, listen in the the late great Charlie Munger, rest in peace, is famous for saying, “If all you ever did was buy high quality companies at their 200E moving average, you would outperform the S&P 500 by a lot in the long term.” End quote. Charlie Munger, one of the greatest investors of all time. Well,
see that yellow line? That’s the 200 week moving average for Netflix. It is also the previous 2021 all-time high. Now, this doesn’t mean that Netflix can’t go lower. It absolutely can go lower. But what it does mean, it means that you’re not overpaying. You’re never going to overpay for a stock. Okay? Of course it does, King Hornet. Of course it applies to Microsoft. That’s a such a horrible comment. Go back and look at Microsoft’s 200E moving average over the course of the last 25 years and tell me it doesn’t apply to Microsoft. Of course it does. You’re just talking about right now because Microsoft is under its 200E moving average. Of
course it does. Of course it applies to Microsoft. There’s your 200week moving average. Okay, there’s your 200WE moving average. That’s where Microsoft currently sits. It doesn’t mean that the stock can’t go beneath it. It absolutely can go beneath it.
You know, I think you have a I think you have a really good support level on Microsoft around 34350. 340 350 is a really good support level there for Microsoft. It doesn’t mean it can’t go beneath it, right? It doesn’t it doesn’t mean it can’t go beneath it. But when you guys are investing in your long-term portfolio, I’ll leave you with this piece of advice. Don’t try to buy the cheapest price. Just try to buy a good price. If you if you always try to buy the lowest possible price, then a lot of times you’re never going to buy the stock that you want to buy. You’re not Listen, I’m not good enough to pick the very bottom of a stock’s pullback. I’m not. Wish I was. I’m not. Nobody is. But my focus in the long-term portfolio, I try to focus on buying good, high quality companies with great proven businesses at what I think is a good price. Not the lowest price, but what I think is a good price. And right now, Netflix pulling back into its 200 week moving average, back into the previous 2021 all-time high. It might not be the lowest price, but I think it’s a good price. Now, can we drop to 65? Can we drop to 60? You bet your butt you can. But we invest in the long-term portfolio because you plan on on holding the stock for a long period of time. So, I did grab some. Now, listen, I have I own Netflix. I have I have owned Netflix for a long time. Okay? So I my average cost this is actually the the the highest price I’ve ever paid for Netflix. Okay. So my purchase on Netflix today is the highest price I’ve ever bought. But I’ve bought Netflix multiple times over the course of the last over the course of the last several years. Okay. But I have no problem. I can’t argue with anyone that says, “Wow, previous all-time high in 2021, previous resistance in 2024, broke above it in 24, then it became support, pulled back into the 200 weekly.” I can’t argue anyone that says, “You know what? I’ll buy some here in the low70s.” Can’t argue with it. I did it today. Now, let’s get into some other positions. We had a swing trade um on Circle for the short. I have been been becoming increasingly bearish on on Bitcoin. Bitcoin is testing an a monster of a support level at 60. Just a monster support level at 60. Um, you know, I think 60K is going to break, you know, but we’ll we’ll it hasn’t broken yet. We got into 59K today. That’s not a break. We’re getting close. Um, but we took a short on circle yesterday at 76.94 right in front of a $78 rejection. 78 was this real key, nice, beautiful support level over the last couple of weeks. We gapped underneath it yesterday and then when we bounced back into 78. So here was the bounce back into 78. We went ahead and we took the trade short right there. So right there was my entry at 77. Actually filled at 7694. We took that trade short against the 78 resistance level. You can see on my screen this used to be support. You gapped underneath it. Once you gap underneath that support level, we look for that level to now become resistance. It did in fact become resistance as you guys can all see right there. So, we took the trade short as a swing and the stock just absolutely cratered today down 5%. So, we took a bunch of profits off as the stock cratered. I am now down to a runner. I’m only in 10% of this position and I’m going to stay in it just in case that 60k breaks on Bitcoin because if 60k breaks on Bitcoin into next week, then I would say that circle is going to fall into the mid60s and you have a really nice support level here at 65 and that was this previous support level from November. You broke underneath it in February. It was then resistance in February. Then you had the huge gap up and the explosion on the back of the news. I believe that was Clarity Act news that took Circle and and all your crypto names back to the upside in March. Um, but that’s a really nice support level. That’s also the IPO, the opening IPO low. So, you guys can see big structure here at 6566. So, there’s your low in June. There’s your low in November. Broke underneath it, resistance, gapped above it. Now, look to fall back into it. So, I’m going to try to stay in this position. Again, I’m only in 10% of the the position at this time from 7694, but we’re going to try to stay in it to get south of 70 and take that final profit off in the mid60s if Bitcoin breaks 60K. Okay, we also went ahead on a long position on Madna uh a couple of days ago. We got into Madna at 60. We took profits off at 62 and 64. And I’m still long some. Um again, partial position because we took profits off twice. But let me just show you guys the setup here that I’m looking at. 58 to 60 zone. Big resistance level that you had here on Madna. We broke through that resistance level last week. Pulled back down into it. And now that previous level of resistance is beginning to act as support, 9 EMA, this light blue line you see on my screen, curling back up to the upside. We’re going to look for that 9 EMA to be support. And we’re going to try to see if Madna can give us a nice candle, nice breakout candle. Looks something like that. The other thing we can look at here, nice downtrend resistance line over these lower highs. We’ve made lower highs over the last four consecutive trading days. So, a break above that downtrend line could potentially give us the trigger to pick up some momentum and make a push back up there into the high 60s. So, that is also a position that we still have. And then last but not least, I also went ahead and initiated a position here on Nphase today. I just feel like this is a good support level here. Um, there’s a lot of things kind of that I’m looking at. You had news with Sunun, another solar name, with Tesla today. Maybe that gets, you know, a little action into solar stocks. You also have bond yields pulling back. As yields pull back, that eases pressure on solar stocks. So, that’s working in our favor. You have a descending wedge that is forming here. Also on Nphase, which is uh typically a trend reversal pattern, you have the 50-day moving average that is sitting here um this dark blue line. You had a previous support level. I’ll go to a three-minute chart just to break it down for you guys a little bit um a little bit more cleanly. Let me delete that descending wedge. But you also have a support level.
We also had a support level here around 48 that you guys can see back here on the 9th there on the 17th and it looked like you broke that level yesterday. See, it looks like you broke that level yesterday and then you gapped back above it and it became support early this morning. So, I liked that price action. Actually went long in phase right there in the morning once we uh once we gapped back above that 4748 level. So, what I’m basically doing here is I’m trying to play this for a little bit of a of a relief bounce that takes you back up into the low30s and get back up into some of this resistance zone that you see up here. And my stop loss is going to be down here at 47. Okay. So, I’m using the 50-day moving average on the daily chart and I’m using that support level at at 47 as my as my stop. We also have a little bit of a of a bullish harami candlestick pattern, right? is this right here is a bullish harami type of setup. So you have a bullish harami at 50-day moving average. Let’s see if there’s a little bit of a bounce from there. Nothing crazy, but these are just these are just positions that I have, right? Positions that were that are still open. We’ll check on Micron. Micron is still pushing, guys. Micron is at the all-time high. Micron is at the all-time high 1210. So we are at that all-time high, still pushing, and it’s carrying the whole market up with it. You know, take a look at the S&P, take a look at the NASDAQ is NASDAQ’s above yesterday’s high. Take a look at the so XL is ripping as well. That’s a triple leverage ETF on the semis. Just absolutely exploding. So you guys know, listen, you guys, you guys know um you know, semiconductors are going to be front and center for us tomorrow on the on the watch list. Um, so XL is going to be on the watch list for tomorrow. So I fully expect ourselves um I fully expect myself to be trading so XL tomorrow or maybe AMD. Um I don’t know if I’ll trade Micron. I’ll probably trade so XL instead of Micron. Um but just an unbelievable unbelievable move that we’re getting right now guys in the back of Micron’s earnings. And it really felt like it it really felt like the market was was really kind of relying on Micron’s earnings because we got pretty close here, guys. We got pretty close to breaking this support level today of the 50-day moving average. And we still might over the course of the next few days, but we got pretty damn close to it today. And now Micron’s earnings are giving the whole market a little bit of a boost. So we can hit pause on the the the the sell off in the market that we’ve had, you know, that we had yesterday that we really had the last week. You know, the markets after we had that gap up on the 15th on the US Iranou, you know, huge drop in oil, big gap up in equities, but ever since that actual gap up, the markets have traded to the downside. So we we’ve had a nice oneweek pullback here back into that 50-day moving average support. Um, and we already went over the levels. You guys know now exactly what I’m looking for. 740, 744. Those are your resistance levels on SPY. Support is the low 730s, that 50-day moving average. And then 725 to 723 would be your next support level if the 50-day broke. So, where am I getting that from? I’ll show you guys on my chart. There it is. Hey, you guys can see double top highs right here in the end of April in the first uh two days of May. Then you gapped above it. You pulled back down into it and you had a beautiful little triple bottom right here at this at this 725 level.
Right? So if you break the 50-day, which is this dark blue line on my screen, this becomes This becomes your your target. That becomes your next support level. And believe me, if we break this support that I’m going to draw for you right here, we break this level, I will be short. I will be short if we break this level. And I believe that we will encounter resistance inside of this zone. Okay. So, here’s my resistance zone. There’s my support one. Here’s my support two. And then if you want to just round it off, support three is 716 is support three. Okay, so those are your marks guys. Those are your levels. Resistance one, 740. Resistance 2, 744. Resistance 3, 750. Support one, 732. Support two, 724. Support 3, 716. Mark those lines out. Mark out those levels. You bet your butt. I’ll be using our institutional flow monitor to identifying not to identify but to confirm that those levels are in fact there with institutional price institutional order flow if and when those order uh those levels are reached.
Okay. Yeah, we’ll see what happens tomorrow. We got PCE inflation data tomorrow. That’s going to be a big one. Um I don’t know how important the PCE number is going to be because this is going to be pre- Iran USOU. Oil has collapsed back to WTI is back to $70. Brent is back to 74. For um for context here, prior to the Iran war, oil was at 67. So we’ve almost done a complete round trip. Oil is almost back to where it was prior to the Iran war conflict. So, as long as that stays that way, we should see an easing of inflation pressures over the next couple of months, and that should start to deteriorate and start to erase some of the rate hike expectations that the market had priced in following the inflation numbers following the Fed meeting. I still don’t believe the Fed’s going to raise rates this year. I really truly don’t. Um, I believe the next time that the Fed changes rates, it will be a cut. I just don’t think it happens anytime soon, but um, we’ll see. as we go through the next few weeks or next few months rather. So I just I just don’t know if the PC number is going to be because it’s going to be backward looking, right? Like oil has really pulled in since we got the since the data that you’re getting from the PCE number. So people might look at this as it’s kind of a rearview mirror number and they’re going to be more interested to see what does inflation look like next month and the month after with oil back in the 70s. Does inflation ease or is there still, you know, an underlying upward pressure there? I think that is what the market’s going to focus on. I think tomorrow the bigger focus it’s go is going to be on Micron. It’s going to be on the semis. It’s going to be on the AI trade more so than the PCE number. That’s what I think. But we’ll see what happens. If that number comes in as a complete shock and it’s just so far off from expectations, maybe the markets have an outsized reaction to it. But if it’s anywhere near the expectation, I think the market just looks right past it and looks into this the inflation numbers for next month. Okay. So folks, that just wraps things up there for me. Listen, if you are um a member of True Trading Group, you guys can head back on over into the main chat room. So, we’re going to open up that main chat room. You guys can head back over in there. Adam’s doing a whole session with the active trader mode, our our newest and our most advanced trading assistant tool that we have on the platform. Go back, go into main chat, go hang out. If you guys have active trader, you guys can get act your accounts activated. If you don’t have it, you want information on it, what it is, and how it works and what you can use it for. Go on in there, check it out. Um, Adam’s going to start that up in just a couple of minutes. If you are not a member at all, join the trial. Go to trtradingging.com990.
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Have a wonderful rest of your night and I will see you all tomorrow. Take care, folks.