Hey yo, where am I at? There it is. Hey yo, what’s up everybody? What’s going on, folks? Welcome to the True Trading Group live stream, folks. We’ve got um a pretty nice move here to the downside. I’ve actually I’m already in a short position here um on the overall markets. We’re short MEES from 761175 and we just got a big drop here. Um, hold on. We’re This is coming out here live.
See, we got some news that’s coming out right now regarding US and Iran. No, this is not necessarily an Iran headline. This is really coming out here. Crowd strike is getting pulverized. And then really it’s also Broadcom. Broadcom hitting to the downside is going to pull down all of the rest of your semiconductors. SOXL, AMD, uh, Micron, you’re getting little pullbacks right now as Broadcom’s earnings just came out. So, I’m going to take advantage of this pullback that we’re getting right now. 752 was my target for this pullback. Uh, alerts are going off here. 752 is my target on this pullback, guys. So, we’re locking in some profits right here on our future short. So, we’re short MEES from earlier today.
All right, there we are. All right, so we just got it off. So, there is another piece of profit there on that position. So, really nicely done, guys. That was just a quick little drop there right off of Broadcom’s earnings. U members up to trade. I mean, this was not how I, you know, usually start my live streams, but I wasn’t um you know, it is a position that I’m already in. and 752 on the spy was our target and we just fell right down into 752. So guys, congrats, man. Congrats on that. That’s not really the the reason for this live stream. This live stream we’re going to be talking about, you know, I’ll I’ll talk to you guys about the position. I’ll talk to you guys about the trade. I am I am short futures. I’m down to small size at this point. I’m short from 7611. Um, and we just had a a really nice drop there that took us all the way down to the 7550s. Um, let me take a quick little peek here, guys. Hold on one second. Let me just go through some of these levels here. We just got to 7551 on futures, and that take us that took us right into 75225 on the spy. Um, and like I said, 752 was the target. All right, 752 was the target. So, that’s why I just took another piece of profit off there. If you guys go, I’ll take you to do a 15-inute chart here real quick and just show you the support zone that I was looking at. It’s pretty straightforward. This is a 15-inute chart just to clean it up so you guys can see it more easily. There’s a nice little pivot top. When you broke above that on the 28th, last Thursday, it became support and then you got the extension follow through to the upside. So, we took a short here in the markets this morning. 7611 uh 75 761125 was the fill on futures and my target was right here on the spy. If you were trading spy options, the target was right into that 752 zone. And we just hit that right. Excuse me. We just hit that right now.
Okay. Um, so we’re just reading some stuff. So that was the target. So that is our support level. Um, and we just reached it. So I wasn’t expecting it, but when my targets are reached, guys, I I go ahead and I I react, right? It doesn’t matter if my targets are reached in 3 seconds, 3 minutes, 3 hours, or 3 days. When the targets are reached, you act and you take profit. You stick to the game plan. That’s what we just did. We have a lot to talk about and cover here on this live stream. We got crowdsite earnings. We’ve got Broadcom earnings. Um, I’ve got two positions that I’m in. One of them obviously you already know of. And then I want to talk to you guys about the SpaceX IPO. I’ve been getting a lot of questions. Yes, I am live. Steve Maloo says, “Are you live?” Yes, I am live.
Okay. Yes, I am live. Okay. Um, I’ve been getting a lot of questions about the SpaceX IPO and a lot of people asking me what I’m going to be doing about it. Um, so I want to talk to you guys about the SpaceX IPO and then I also want to go over and talk about how I think the markets are going to react to three of the largest IPOs that we’ve ever had in history between SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI. You guys have to understand the valuations of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI. Those three companies together are larger than all of the IPOs from 1995 to 1999 during the com bubble. They’re larger than all of those IPOs. And there are some things that are being changed on the indexes to get SpaceX into the and it’s not just SpaceX, it’s going to be for Anthropic, it’s going to be for OpenAI, but there’s some things that are being changed to get those companies into the indexes sooner and quicker. And you have to um because these companies are so large and market caps, you’re not used to seeing, it’s not normal to see a company IPO at a trillion dollar north market cap. companies used to go public earlier to do a really big capital raise to help them grow and um to raise capital to do whatever it is that they need to do. Now you’re seeing companies stay private for far longer. Companies are staying private for a decade, two decades before they actually are going public. And they’re doing a lot of capital raises before they actually do go public. Like OpenAI’s raised, I think $120 something billion dollars already. Enthropic is raising over hundred billion dollars. These companies have basically already IPOed but just through the private markets. So these are far more mature and far larger companies that are now coming to market with these insane valuations. And the IPOs themselves, the money that’s being raised is the largest that we’ve ever seen. SpaceX is going to raise $75 billion on the IPO. That is by far the largest IPO ever in history. But that that money has to come from somewhere. that capital that’s going to go into the Anthropic IPO, the OpenAI IPO, the SpaceX IPO, that money has to come from somewhere. And what we have seen a lot of times in the past is if history was to, you know, show us anything is that a lot of times a a tsunami of IPO supply coming to the market is enough to cool off a trade that has overheated. And as we look around, now listen, I’m not I’m not a doomsdayer. I’m not telling you the market’s going to crash. I am still bullish. Okay, I am still very heavily invested. But and I think this bull market can last another one and a half to two years. But in the very very near term, I have grown increasingly cautious. The markets are overbought. They’re overextended by many metrics. But just because markets are overextended doesn’t mean that they have to turn around right away. They have to pull back. They have to crash or they can’t continue higher. Me telling you that I’m growing increasingly cautious, which is why I put shorts on in the market today, doesn’t necessarily mean that I’m calling a top. Okay? I wish I was good enough to tell you the exact day that the market’s going to just turn and that’s going to be the complete change in the trend. But we are overbought. We are overextended. And it is possible that the supply that’s going to come to market through SpaceX, through Anthropic, through OpenAI could finally be enough to kind of absorb the rest of the exuberant buying pressure that you’re seeing in the in the AI trade. And that could be enough to cool that trade off, make all of these IPO, these uh excuse me, these AI stocks pull back a little bit and then therefore the whole market can pull back a little bit and that would be incredibly healthy. I’m not telling you I think the markets are going to crash, but I am telling you that I think we are overextended to the point where over the course of the next several weeks, I am looking for a pullback in the market. Now, to be fair, full transparency, as I always am. I tried a short on the market yesterday. It didn’t work. I lost money yesterday, but I stuck with the idea. I got a really great setup on it today with fantastic riskreward, and we were able to pull out like a 5:1, 6:1 on the short today. made way more money today than it is that we lost on the trade yesterday. And that’s what trading is really all about. You got to make more money when you’re right than you lose when you’re wrong. And a lot of inexperienced traders do the exact opposite. They’ll make a little bit of money when they’re right, but they lose a lot of money when they’re wrong. You’re never going to be consistently profitable that way. You’ve got to make more when you’re right than you lose when you’re wrong. Now, whether that means losing less when you’re wrong or making more when you’re right depends on the individual trader and the struggles that you have. Some people it’s both, but one is a riskmanagement issue on the risk side, getting proper position size, sticking to your stop- losses. The other is if you’re selling out of your winners too soon, then that’s a matter of emotional discipline and, you know, fear. You’re in a trade, it’s starting to work. You see, you’re like, “Oh man, I’m up 500 bucks. This is great.” Stock starts to pull back. You’re only up 300. You panic. You’re like, “Oh man, I was just up five. Now I’m only up three. I better just get out now before the trade goes red. 300 is better than nothing.” you get out and then two hours later you would have been up 800 if you stayed in the trade, right? That’s happened to everybody. Um, you guys know exactly what it is I’m talking about. Some of you probably feel like I’m speaking directly to you. And it’s not that I’m I’m speaking directly to you. It’s just that we have 11,000 members in True Trading Group. I have spoken to tens of thou well I haven’t spoken to but we’ve had tens of thousands of traders come through
connection.
Am I still here? Did you lose me? We’re good. Brett, I think I just lost connection. Yeah, I think I just I don’t know if it was just on my end, but I just I lost my my connection flickered there for a little bit. So, sorry about that, guys. But we’re back. Um so yeah you know emotional discipline you guys you know exiting winners too soon all of these things are things that um a lot of you know inexperienced traders really struggle with. So we can talk about all that stuff another time. I want to focus on earnings from Crowd Strike, earnings from Broadcom and I want to talk about SpaceX. Um, so for those of you that are new to the stream, if you guys are unfamiliar with myself or who I am, why you should listen to anything it is that I discuss on this channel, my name is Michael Edward Ferinati. I go by Michael Edward. I’m the co-founder and head trader of True Trading Group. TTG is a fintech platform that has a whole trading ecosystem of tools, resources, data, and analytics for retail traders that give them an actual edge over other traders that don’t have access to these things. We received the Benzinga Fintech award for best AI analysis tool. We have partnerships with the NASDAQ, OpenAI, DataBento, Benzinga, Trading View, and Unusual Wales to build out the tools that we have on our platform that give our traders an advantage and an edge over others. We have trade plan generators where you can type in the stock or the option or futures contract or the crypto that you want to trade. And it can give you, you know, a complete detailed trading plan with confidence score on entry, profit targets, and stop-loss for the trading style that you want. day trade, swing trade, long-term investment, scalp. You choose whatever trading style you want. It’ll go through, it’ll give you a full detailed trading plan. It’s got about a 71 or 72% win rate on that tool right now with over 450,000 trading plans generated by our members. That’s just one tool that we have on on True Trading Group. We have an AI charting software that is AI completely integrated into the system. We have the level three data where we can monitor institutional order flow. We have an active trader mode trading assistant that you can actually connect your brokerage on to that can actually trade plans for you while you’re busy, while you’re at work. So many different things that you guys have access to on the TTG platform that we call the TTG terminal really, which like the Bloomberg terminal, but for retail traders. It’s the reason why so many of our members are successful. And by successful, I literally mean our members make money, right? That’s why we have 11,000 members from 114 different countries. And that’s why members stay with True Training Group at a retention rate of around 75% because they have success when they come here. And don’t just believe me because I say that members of True Training Group that are on this live, do me a favor. Type the number one in chat right now if you guys are making money and if you’re becoming better traders because of TTG. Prospector goes, “Legit, I’ve been here for years.” There you go. So, type number one if you guys are making money, if you’re becoming better traders. Go ahead and type the number one in chat right now. The people that are not members, pay very close attention to how many people you see type number one inside chat. These people are literally were literally you just a viewer on a live stream. Then they decided they were going to join your training group. They listened to me speak for an hour, hour and a half on a live and were like, you know what, I’m going to join this group. They saw members telling them that they’re having success. Maybe they like the analysis that I gave. They like the way that I taught, whatever it was. or they like the the nononsense, no sugar coating, fully transparent, you know, open book that that I am when I come on here and I talk. I don’t know. Whatever it was, whatever it was, they decided to join and now they’re sitting here telling you that they’re making money. And then at the end of the day, that is all that matters. That’s why we’re here. You guys are here to make money. So, those of you that are not members, okay, before I get into CrowdStrike, Broadcom earnings, and we’re going to talk about the SpaceX IPO, for those of you that are new and you are not members, you guys can actually try all of our tools and you can get unrestricted access to the True Trading Group platform for 90 days for just 90 where it’s our new trial that we’re doing at True Training Group. We’re saying the hell with an annual membership. Don’t join an annual membership. No annual commitment, no larger price. Just go to trueterradinggroup.com9090.
You can use our entire suite of tools, make money with them, then we’ll talk about an annual membership.
This is not a trust me bro. I want you to actually use them.
Reboot Jones goes, I did a trial membership and I found out this is legit. I’m a lifetime member now. Reeb Jones, I hope you’re doing well, brother. That’s the that’s that’s the way that we operate here in TTG. I don’t want you to just trust me. I don’t want you to take my word for it. I want you to actually use the system, use the tools, join the community, okay? Follow some of our professional traders that are mods inside TTG. Make money with us over the course of those 90 days and then the annual membership, your me your trial pays for itself. Pays for the annual membership. That’s the deal. Because if our if our tools are good enough, which I believe that they are, apparently, so does Benzinga for awarding us with the Benzinga Fintech Award for best AI analysis tool. So does the 11,000 members that we have from 114 different countries. I believe that our tools are good enough. And if they are good enough, you should be able to come use them, make money with them, and then decide, “Wow, this is fantastic. I never want to trade without this stuff ever again. I’m going to join an annual membership.” And that’s the bet that we are going to make because we stand behind behind the platform that we’ve created. So all you need to do is go to trueinggroup.com990.
Everything on that page is going to be included for 90 days for just 90 bucks. That’s $1 a day. Make money with us over the course of your 90 days and then we’ll talk about you becoming an annual membership. Okay, fair enough. If you have any questions, you guys can send us a text message. Don’t hesitate. There’s a phone number right at the bottom of your screen. It is 1888-621-2127. Again, it is 1888-621-2127. Right down there at the bottom of your screen, you guys can go ahead and text that number with any questions, concerns, comments, you need clarity on something, you need help signing up, whatever, text that number. We’ll help you out any way that we possibly can. All right, beautiful. Fantastic. Come out, check out the tools, use them, join the group, see what we’re all about. All right. Yeah, let’s put that link in chat there. Brett, can you put that link in chat? We got HC Goldberg says, “Can you put that link in chat?” HC, we got you, brother. It’s coming coming your way right now.
Brett’s going to drop that link right inside chat for you guys now. All right. So, again, anyone that’s not a member, I invite you to come use the tools. see what the fuss is all about. Make money with us and then we’ll talk about you becoming an annual member if you so choose. Okay, that’s how we put our money where our mouth is. All right, so Brett’s going to drop that link inside the chat so you guys can uh can click on it there or you can just go to trueterradinggroup.com990
or send a text message with questions to 1888621-2127.
Yo, Rhino, what’s up, brother? Hope you’re doing well, man. Longtime member, very helpful tools and community. Plus, they teach you how to trade with great courses. That’s the basis for learning, says my boy Rhino. So, there’s the link, HC Goldberg. Uh, we just posted it right there inside chat. And anybody else, click on that link. You guys can join us for our trial for 90 days. Okay, now let’s get into the content here that I want to go over the stream. In case you guys are just joining us, I just took profit off on a short that we currently have on futures. Okay, we shorted futures at 761125 earlier this morning. We have just taken more profits off on that position as we just fell to 7551 at the low. Um, but we took some profit off here at into 7557 because this is a support zone. All right. And right now I well my future’s on a different I can only share one screen at a time with you guys. But what you have right here on this screen that you guys are seeing right now is the chart of the spy and this is 752. This is the support level that we were focusing on today. This was the target for our short trade and we just reached it here in the after hours session. That’s why we just took profits off on futures. Okay. So that’s what that’s what just took place there. If you guys are just tuning in or if you’re just getting caught back up, that’s what we have. I also have another position that I’m in. Um, it’s smaller size though at this time because we’ve already taken profit as well. The futures position is also smaller size. I’ve taken profits off like four or five times already on the trade. So, that’s down to small size, but I’m still in it. And then you have Alphabet. Again, this is also smaller size, but I am I am still in it. So, as long as these positions are open, I will obviously let you guys know what I’m doing with them. I’m looking to see if we can break 358 on Alphabet. I think the stock falls to 351, 352. I am short from 36350. Okay, I’m short from 36350. We shorted earlier this morning after a rejection off of previous resistance, which excuse me, previous support, which now we were looking to act as resistance, which is in the 366 to 367 zone. We took that trade. We rolled over during the middle or the the late morning session and we took some profit off the table on that drop and now we’re still in it sitting here at 359. But really, I’m looking for a break of 358, which is today’s low and yesterday’s low. And if that breaks, you fall into a gap. I’ll take it to a daily chart. You fall into a gap that takes you down into the 50-day moving average. So, you guys can see this huge gap up that we had on the last trading day of April, right? This was April 30th, a huge gap up that creates this open gap. And this dark blue line you see on my screen is the 50-day moving average. That 50-day moving average lines up right at the gap fill. So, I’m looking for us to fall right down into this area. Okay? I’m looking for Alphabet to get right down into here probably tomorrow or by Friday. And that’s going to be where I’m going to take my final profit off on the short. Again, I’m short from 36350. Okay. So, those are positions that I currently do. Oh, and I still have a runner open on TE, which I’ve been in for like two weeks. Um, but again, that’s also a small size. So, I’m not in full position on anything. These are just updates on trades. If you guys have been following me for the last couple of weeks, then you know that I’m I’ve been in TE for a while. Uh, we took up there at 12. We’re down to runner status. Um, but I do those are positions. I just want to update you guys on those. Okay, fantastic. Let’s move on. Crowd Strike. Okay, these cyber security names have gone absolutely bonkers. Okay, these cyber security names have gone absolutely bonkers, but they’re getting beaten up a little bit after their earnings. Okay, so let’s go through and let’s talk about some earnings. Let’s see. Broadcom.
Trying to see if I can go through and just get these. Okay, here we go. Here’s Crowd Strike, guys. Crowd Strike revenues were 1.39 billion. Analysts were expecting 1.36. Earnings per share were a$110. Analysts were expecting a$17. They see full year fisc 20. Okay. Full year 2027 revenue 5.94 billion to 5.91 billion. That is a beat. And they’re going to be doing a 4 for one stock split. That’s nice. So, they’re going to do a 4 for one stock split.
That’s nice.
The 9090 site doesn’t work. When you put country as United States, you cannot put in the state for billing in the form. Mark City, could you do me a favor, brother? Mark City and honestly, anybody else that’s having an issue with the 9090 site. So Mark City and anybody else having an issue, just shoot us a text message and we can get you set up manually. If there’s an issue with the site, just send a text to 1888-621-2127.
Again, the phone number is right at the bottom of the screen. 1888-621-2127. Mark, just text that number, brother, and we’ll get you we’ll get you hooked up. Okay. All right. We’re moving back down towards lows, guys. Right now, this is a key level, 752. I like the short here and we’re we’re going to stay on it. See what happens here tomorrow.
All right. So, that is those are the sales. Those are the the numbers there for Crowd Strike. Um all above these are all above analyst expectations. They didn’t miss on anything.
They beat CrowdStrike literally beat on everything and the stock’s still down 12% today. I just think this is a situation of a you know PaloAlto is very similar. PaloAlto the cyber security names have had such huge rallies and this is the thing about earnings. I really don’t like when a company rallies this hard going into its earnings print because even when they have really good earnings sometimes it turns into a profit taking event and that’s what I believe is happening on Crowdstrike. That’s what I believe happened on PaloAlto. The earnings were fantastic. This is not a This is not a matter of, oh my god, they had really bad earnings. The stock is tanking. This is just a matter of the stock was $460 one month ago and it was just at $780 yesterday. Okay, that’s what this is. This thing went from $460 to $780 in one month. Then they report earnings. Maybe the earnings are fantastic. The stock gives you a pullback. So, they literally raised their fullear outlook. They forecasted revenue uh and earnings per share above analyst expectations. Their guidance for the second quarter was also ahead of estimates. It’s just a matter of I just think it’s profit taking on a stock that has had a massive run to the upside. That’s really that’s what I think you have there on Crowd Strike. So, we’ll talk about some levels on Crowdstrike and where we can look for maybe to to place some trades, but let’s also talk about let’s talk about Broadcom, okay? Okay, because Broadcom also had earnings and obviously Broadcom is very important to the AI trade here as it’s impacting SO XL. It’s impacting a lot of your other a lot of your other semiconductor names. So, let’s go through here. Broadcom sees third quarter revenue about 29.4 billion. Analysts were expecting 28.6. Uh adjusted earnings per share 244. Analysts expecting 239. Net revenue 22.19 billion. Analysts expecting 22.13 semiconductor revenue 15 billion analysts expecting 14.65 infrastructure software revenue 7.18 analyst expecting 7.23. So again not a bad earnings report either for Broadcom.
It’s not a bad report either. The stock is still down 7% on the day. Why? Well, most likely because the stock has had a massive run since the April bottom and I just think that the you know the stock was 420 last week. It shot all the way to 500 and now you release these earnings and the stock drops back down to 450. I just think these are this is profit taking on these names. Guys, we do have a new low break right now coming in here on the spy 752. This is going to be the this is going to be the support level. All right. Now, listen. Those of you that are following me on this short, if you are still short with me here on futures, okay, if you guys are still short with me here, I already took profit right here at this level on that initial drop. So, I’m not taking profit here again. I am holding this position overnight. The next support level that we will target if we are able to break 752. This level’s not yet broken. It’s being tested. There’s a very big difference. So, when a level is tested, we take profits at it. And then if it breaks, we then sit back and hold. This support level is about $1 wide. 751 to 752 is your the width of your support level. So you’re not gonna we’re not going to consider this level broken until we break underneath 750. Levels support and resistance are not finite prices. They are areas. They are zones. The more volatile the stock, the wider those zones are. It’s our job as traders to determine how wide a level is so we can make a determination of whether a level’s broken or whether the level is still being tested. That’s a very important piece. Okay. If you are someone that shorts a stock and it immediately reverses and goes the other way, or you go long a stock and it immediately reverses and goes the other way, it is most likely because you are thinking a level is broken and you’re getting into a trade thinking it’s broken. It’s actually not. And you’re actually buying the depth of the level. If you had a resistance level at 100, but the the resistance level was a dollar wide, meaning 100 to 101. The stock shoots to 101 170, excuse me, stock shoots to 175 and you’re like, “Ah, the $100 level is broken.” You go long at 175, it hits 186, then drops to 97, and you’re like, “What the hell just happened?” It’s because you think the level’s broken, but really you’re just testing the depths of the level. And when that level does not break because you’re you’re you’re getting long so deep into resistance that it’ll reverse right back off of that. And then you feel like you’re getting stopped out the second you get into a trade. If that happens to you or to the short side, you say, “Oh, $50 is support, but maybe that the level’s a dollar wide. It drops to 4965 and you’re like, “Ah, this level’s broken.” You go short at 4975 and a stock pops at 52 and you’re like, “What the hell?” It’s because you think a level’s broken, but it’s not. It’s being tested. This is a very, very crucial piece of technical analysis that a lot of traders get wrong. They think support and resistance are just a finite price. When that price is broke, it’s all co the coast is clear. That’s not the case. This buy can drop all the way to 751 and it can still bounce back and that support level will have held. After we break 751, then I will say this level is broken. We target 748 for the next support. So, we’re going to look at if you’re looking at my screen right now, okay, follow me. Here’s your resistance highs of the day from the 22nd, right? And then when you get into the 26th, so last that was Tuesday because the markets are closed on Monday. You can see support. I don’t know why it’s grabbing it’s grabbing that that moving average. Let me delete that. I don’t want you thinking that’s the support because it’s not
there. Okay. And then you’ll also see so double bottom lows of the day on the 26th and then you’ll also see double bottom low of the day on the 27th and previous resistance highs in the 22nd. So that is a very key level that if we can break this support zone that should be our next target. So we are short this right now. Futures are 7544. We are short from 7611. So this is a this is a big trade for us right now guys. Okay this is what 60 70 point trade right now and we’re looking for a little bit more. We were only risking like 14 points on the trade. We’re already up like 70. So, this is working out to be a really solid trade for us. All right. So, congratulations all of our members that are on this. Now, some people followed me on options. Some people took um put options, the 757 put that expires tomorrow. Um obviously you you can’t take profit right now if you’re on the option, but if you’re trading futures with me, you guys can. And this is a support zone, so absolutely be taking some profit right here. I did just a m just a few minutes ago. So, I will be taking profits here, but we’re going to hold on to some in case we get some follow through tomorrow. And we’re going to target that 748 level on the spy. All right. Bada bing, bada boom, everybody’s good. Fantastic. So, let’s go back um to Crowd Strike and Broadcom because let’s talk about some trade ideas here. um now that we’re getting this pullback and then listen I I came into the day today and I started this live stream by telling you I’m growing increasingly cautious hence why I’m short today. Um but I think we might be starting a little bit of a pullback here. Um I and I think it’s necessary and we can get this thing into the 740s. All right. So it’s really what I’m trying to do. I’m trying to get this into the 740s. We’ll see over the course of the next couple of days. We’ll see if we can get there. All right. But let’s go over to Crowd Strike. I think this stock needs to relax. I think it needs to, you know, I I think we need to consolidate a little bit. I think that this has been just an epic rally. Um, you know, I mean, just if you draw Fibonacci levels off of this, you just pull back right into the right into your 236 fib level. And then here’s your support against these previous highs. So, this level is support right here. 675 is support. Maybe you try to bounce off of that, but a bounce off of that I do think puts in a lower high off of this high of the day that was put in there on Monday. And I do think a deeper pullback is is underway here. I think we’re going to be looking at a pullback to like 640. Uh not tomorrow, but maybe over the course of the next couple of days. I think you might try to bounce off 675 and then look for a lower high maybe up into the low 700s and then we can drop down to the 640s. That’s what I think we’re going to see. And then for Broadcom, Broadcom, you probably get a bounce here off of this 435,440. This is the previous, you know, month-long consolidation, previous all-time high. You broke through it last week, extended at the beginning of this week, and then you just had earnings, and then it just dropped right back down into retest that previous resistance zone. So for Broadcom, we’re going to look for this resistance and now start to act as support for us. 435, 440 is going to be that support zone. um and uh we’ll try to bounce off of that and I would say resistance 465 to 470 and then put in a lower high and then pull back down into that level again because I’m thinking the overall market might give us a little bit of a cool off. All right, so that’s kind of what I’m thinking about there with regards to Broadcom, with regards to Crowd Strike. That’s the analysis following the two biggest earnings um of the day. All right. And then we got this this short still working on on the S&P. Okay. All right. Now, let’s move on. Let’s talk about SpaceX. How many of you are interested in the SpaceX IPO? Type the number one.
If you are interested in the SpaceX IPO,
All right. So am I. So I’m glad glad you guys are all um glad you guys are all interested in it. Um so here’s the deal. Here’s
my We’re going to talk about SpaceX.
I am going to trade SpaceX the day of the IPO, but I’m not investing in it. I will at some point I will be a very large shareholder of SpaceX because I am very bullish on space as an industry over the next 20 years. Um, but I don’t buy IPOs in my long-term portfolio. It’s just a rule that I have. IPOs carry a lot of hype and a lot of speculation. And SpaceX is the most hyped, the most speculated IPO in history. The last time we had an IPO that was that had this much hype around it was Facebook. And that IPO went horrifically wrong. You’re talking about an IPO that opened up in the ‘ 40s and dropped all the way to $17. Was horrific. But that turned out to be an amazing buying opportunity, but a lot of people got hosed and got their heads taken off during that sell off. Now, I don’t think that the SpaceX IPO pulls a Facebook, but
I’m not going to buy I’m not going to pay the premium around the hype and the speculation that’s going to be around the IPO. There will be no true price discovery on the IPO, and I’ll explain why. I want to wait for the stock to settle down. I want the hype to to fade. I want true price discovery to take place, which takes time. And I want a few quarters of earnings that I can actually see what their earnings look like and we can try to get a real value on the company. Um, where at least we can know, you know, what multiple we’re paying for, you know, for for what future earnings growth and everything else. So, I probably won’t buy this for like a year. Um, you know, maybe six months at least. I I like to wait at least for a couple of earnings reports, maybe two or three earnings reports before I consider buying something in my long-term portfolio, but I will trade the crap out of this thing the day of the IPO. And I’m going to only look for a potential long on the IPO. Let me explain why. Coming into something like a SpaceX IPO, I don’t think that you should I don’t think that you should say, “Oh, I’m going to look for a loan. I’ll look for a short. See what happens.” Because there’s going to be so much liquidity. There’s going to be so much volume and volatility and there’s going to be such whiplash moves that I think you really have to just stick to your guns and look for one setup and if you see it, pounce on it and if you don’t see it, leave it alone. I don’t think it’s going to be I don’t think it’s going to be a way for you to look at something be like, “Oh, this looks like a good long.” And then all of a sudden you’re like, “Oh, wait. This looks like a short.” And you’re going to try you’re going to try to flip-flop and play it both ways. I think you’re going to get yourself spun around if you do that. I think you’re better off saying, “I’m only going to look long.” and then you wait till you see a long setup and then go after it. And if you see short setups, just don’t trade it. I think you’re going to do better that way. There are some things about the SpaceX IPO that make me believe that this stock really could fly off of its IPO, and I’ll explain to you what these are. There’s a lot of things that are happening with the SpaceX IPO that are unusual or that are uncommon rather, I should say. So, first, Elon Musk is giving a pretty large allocation to retail. That’s not normal. Most IPOs are strictly handed off to the institutions, the big banks, and your your hedge funds. And retail really doesn’t have an opportunity to buy the stock until it actually opens for trade. So, what typically takes place is a company IPO, let’s say, for $60 a share. and all the hedge funds and the banks and you know they all the institutions they all buy shares at 60 but then there’s demand there’s high demand for the IPO so the day that the stock actually starts trading it opens up at 72 at when it opens up at 72 all your hedge funds and all your institutions they’re already up money because they bought in right they’re up 20% already because they bought in at 60 it opens up at 72 so they’re already up $12 a share and retail buys it at 72 the stock pulls back to 66 and everyone goes, “Oh, what a great IPO. The stock’s up 10%.” It IPOed at 60 and now the stock’s at 66. Everyone goes, “Well, what a great IPO. Stock’s up 10%.” No, it’s not. It opened at 72. Any retail trader that bought the stock at 72 is down money. And that’s how IPOs work. And that’s how they’ve always worked. Retail gets screwed on IPOs time and time and time again. And if you look back through all of your major IPOs, and I can just go through some of these with you. You look back at some of these major IPOs, and I’ve got actually I have a an image here that I want to go through with you guys. Okay, max one-year drawdown. I’m going to name off for you some really, really hyped up IPOs. Facebook, max one-year draw down, 54%. Twitter max one-year draw down 58%. Alibaba max one-year draw down 49%. Shopify 52%. Block 44%. Twilio 66%. Snapchat 56%. Spotify 46%. Lyft 79%. Zoom 40%. Crowdstrike 67. Uber 68%. Pinterest 70%. Snowflake 52%, Palanteer 47, excuse me, Palanteer 53%. Roblox 69%, Coinbase 57%, Robin Hood 90% max one-year draw down. Rivian 88% max one-year draw down. These are massive, massive drawdowns following what were incredibly hyped and and really just exuberant IPOs. I remember people asking me that when when Rivian IPO, people were like, “Yo, you going to buy this in your long-term portfolio?” I was like, “I wouldn’t buy Rivian in my long-term portfolio on the IPO with your money, never mind my own.” Sure enough, stocks down 90s something percent from its IPO. Now, I’m not saying that I think SpaceX is going to have something like that happen, but I think there is there is an effort being made here by Elon Musk for retail traders to actually make money from an IPO. And here’s why. He’s allocating a big portion to retail. So, that’s less of an allocation that would go towards the institutions. If the institutions don’t get as much of an allocation as they want in the IPO, then they will be forced to buy in the open market right alongside retail. Elon Musk is also setting an IPO price of $135 a share. That is very unusual. Usually what happens on an IPO is a range is set. They’ll say, “Oh, we’re looking to IPO anywhere from 130 to 135.” But they will see what the demand is actually like for the IPO and then they could change the price of the offering. And when the stock opens for trade, the market maker that leads the IPO, it’s their job the day of the listing to match orders, match the sell orders they have from the IPO with the buy buyer orders that they have coming in. They match orders and they will move the price of the IPO higher and open it at let’s say 150. Musk is saying he wants this to open up $135 a share. That’s going to be the IPO and he’s going to offer $135 a share to everyone participating in the IPO rather than offering a range and seeing where that demand falls. So there’s less of a chance that you get this massive gap higher where hey we say 135 and the stock opens up at 170 and retail gets caught chasing 170. Then you have the indexes that are potentially looking into changing their rules for listings. SpaceX is automatically going to be the sixth largest market cap in the NASDAQ 100. I’m sorry, it’ll be the seventh. It’ll be the seventh largest market cap in the NASDAQ 100 the day it IPOs.
So what you are seeing take place is the the NASDAQ is changing its rules for listing. It’s changing its listing requirements. Okay, that would allow SpaceX to enter the NASDAQ 100 within 15 days.
So, usually an IPO needs to wait several months before it’s able to enter the NASDAQ. NASDAQ now is telling you we’re going to reduce that to just 15 days. And they used to have a requirement for 10% of the um the size of the float that a company needs to IPO and sell 10% of their shares in the IPO in order to qualify for the listing. So the NASDAQ is scrapping the float requirement and they are cutting the timing to just 15 days. Why is that relevant? It’s relevant because the assumption is that the second SpaceX qualifies for the NASDAQ 100 listing, it will be included in that index. That means every single index fund and every single money manager that is benchmarked or or pegged to the NASDAQ 100 must buy shares of SpaceX. And they don’t just have to buy any amount they want. They have to buy the weighted amount that SpaceX will be in the NASDAQ 100 in order for them to meet the benchmark to the NASDAQ 100 index. Well, SpaceX is not going to become the 94th company in the NASDAQ 100. They will instantly be the seventh. That’s a lot of shares that need to get bought by all of these index funds like QQQ, QQQM, QQQ. These are all index funds that are pegged to the NASDAQ 100 that will have to go and buy shares of SpaceX within a very short period of time. that buying pressure that you could see from those index funds could completely absorb and overwhelm the selling pressure that you’re going to see come from employees of SpaceX. Now, there are some of these shares that won’t have a lockup restriction. And there’s other other lockups that are being sped, they’re being fast forwarded, that are being moved forward. But the thing that’s iron, the thing that’s funny here is that the lockup period on some of these shares is being lined up with and being coordinated with index inclusions because you’re going to have the index inclusion into the NASDAQ 100. That’s going to help absorb some of the lockup. Then you’re going to have the index inclusion into the S&P. The S&P is considering reducing its six-month waiting period for inclusion. So the S&P is going to reduce it as well. So the S&P reduces it as well. Well, SpaceX then enters the S&P 500 in the top 10. So now every single index fund that tracks the S&P 500 like the SPY, VO, that’s the Vanguard, IVV, IT, Fidelity’s FX AIX. All of these index funds attract the S&P 500. They would have to go and buy SpaceX. So you have a situation here where it looks like this IPO is being coordinated where the lockups where the shares become free trading from insiders lines up with inclusions into these indexes that could absorb that selling pressure. That’s why I’m sitting here thinking to myself if there is an institutional bid because you know there’s going to be a retail bid. You know, every retail trader under the sun is going to buy the SpaceX IPO. We know that are the institutions
and you may have a scenario where because they did not get the size of the allocation they wanted in the IPO plus the forced buying pressure from indexes on the inclusion, you could have a really strong institutional bid on this stock. So any pullback gets met with an institutional bid and retail pushes it higher. It is entirely possible that SpaceX could do a $ 1.75 trillion valuation and within a few days we could be looking at a $3 trillion company.
It’s possible.
I will not chase that move in my long-term portfolio, but I will trade it. I am going to use our level three tool that we have inside of True Trading Group. Okay. I am going to use our level three tool. I am going No, no, no. Slim Tims, I know it sounds bullish, but nothing comes with no risk. Okay? Nothing comes without risk when you have IPOs that are this hyped. So historically they don’t go very well. If you did not have all of these things I just talked about with the allocation, the retail, the index funds. If none of that was true, I would be very cautious on this IPO because there’s so much hype, there’s so much excitement that I would be very fearful of this thing opens up and pulls back. But it’s because of all these other details that I’m talking about that kind of make me feel like even though this is hyped to the moon, it still might actually move higher. So, I’m going to come into the actual IPO bullish. I will only look for long setups and I’m going to use our level three data feed that we have through our partnership with the NASDAQ to identify institutional buying pressure. These are one of the tools that you guys get as a member of True Trading Group is we can actually monitor institutional order flow with our trade assistant called active trader mode. It’s a trading assistant trading co-pilot and it can monitor order flow for you. So I’m going to use that to track institutional buying pressure, institutional selling pressure. And if I see heavy institutional buying and clusters of institutional buy orders, I’m going to go after that thing long. We can have a situation where the stock opens at 135, drops to 130, and within 20 minutes it’s at 165.
I think it’s possible. Um, I’m going to look for that. But then I think now fast forward a little while I think this supply that’s going to hit the market with SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI, three of the biggest IPOs in history. I think that supply is going to be enough to cool off the AI trade. The AI trade has gotten completely parabolic. The exuberance level is just unlike anything that I have seen with, you know, Dell computers, HP, Marll. I mean, you take a look at some of these stocks and take a look at some of these charts. It’s just insane. Like, you see Dell Computers does that, Marll does that, you know, HP does that, AMD does that, Micron does that, SanDisk does that, the SMH ETF does that. You take a look at some of these, you know, and you just say to yourself, “This trade is getting just I I I think this rally is getting long in the tooth. I think it’s getting a little too too exuberant and I think that all this supply coming to the market could absorb the last of that exuberant buying pressure and finally see see these things pull back and finally see the AI excuse me finally see the AI trade take a breather and that can give us a nice pullback in the market because I think the markets are going to pull back over the course of the next several weeks. I think we can get into like the 720s 730s. I think we’re gonna have a nice like 5% pullback. Three to 5% pullback sometime in the course of June. Um I think it’s I do I really think it’s possible. And if it lines up with these IPOs, June, July, sometime as we roll into the summer, I think that you’re going to have inflation data. It’s going to test Kevin Walsh, the new Fed. He’s going to go through his first meeting. I think the market’s going to test him. And I think that the supply hitting the markets with this with these IPOs, I think it just cools everything off. I think it’s going to cool everything off. We get a nice little pullback and then I do think that pullback is viable as I still do remain bullish. Um I still am heavily invested. I have trimmed a couple positions like I’ve trimmed Micron. I’ve trimmed Cisco. I’ve trimmed AMD. I’ve trimmed a couple positions but I’m still very heavily invested long. And I think pullbacks that you do get if you get a 5% pullback or something. I do think it’s a buyable moment in the markets as I do still remain bullish um for for the foreseeable future. Um, but in the very near term, I am cautious. In the very near term, I have flipped to bearish. Um, and I’m looking now for a pullback over the course of the next couple of weeks. Okay, so that’s where I’m at. That’s my analysis on the overall markets. Right now, I’m short futures. I’m also short Alphabet. Um, right now, small positions on both. I’ve taken a lot of profit off, but I’m still in them. I will look to reload. Um, if I am right, we should get the spot into the 740s possibly tomorrow. Okay. if not tomorrow, maybe by Friday. All right, but that’s what I’m going to be looking for. All right. Now, again, listen, those of you that are not members of True Trading Group, you guys can come check out the platform, unrestricted, complete, full access, you know, come into chat, get the alerts, trade with the mods, use all of our AI tools, use all the resources on the platform. All you got to do is go to truetrading.com990.
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Any questions, text us there. We’ll help you guys up and help you out any way that we can. All right, that’s it, guys. Have a wonderful rest of your evening. Thanks for tuning in. Smash that like button. Show some love. Let’s see if we can get 748 on the spy tomorrow. That will be my next take profit. We are currently sitting 751 and a half. My next take profit is 748. We’ll see if we get there tomorrow. Have a great night, folks. Let’s go Knicks. Take care, folks.